Development requirement expected to quadruple

SANTA CRUZ >> Santa Cruz faces an astonishing Regional Housing Needs Allocation for the next eight-year cycle.

California is preparing to enter the sixth RHNA cycle, which it transitions to every eight years. The newest cycle is slated to begin June 30, 2023, and finish Dec. 15, 2031. In preparation, the Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments alerted Santa Cruz of its upcoming housing supply goals.

The Santa Cruz City Council on Tuesday learned that the city’s RHNA requirement is expected to more than quadruple for the next cycle. In fact, it’s housing supply requirement is estimated to be four-and-a-half times what it was in 2015.

For the fifth cycle, which concludes at the end of 2023, Santa Cruz was tasked with developing a minimum of 747 new housing units. Now, the state may expect as many as 3,400 new housing units from the city by the end of 2031, according to the AMBAG draft Regional Housing Needs Allocation plan it submitted on Nov. 22.

The city will now need to produce more very-low-income units in the next eight years than it did total units in the previous eight years with 826 verylow-income units. It will also be responsible for 540 low-income units, 617 moderate-income units and 1,417 above-moderate-income units, according to the staff report.

RHNA allocations increased dramatically due to a set of new state laws, according to AMBAG Planning Director Heather Adamson. Senate Bill 828 and Assembly Bills 1771 and 686 are included in that explanation.

Additionally, the state is looking to cut down on vacancy rates, overcrowding in the reason and the higher-than-average cost of housing in Santa Cruz. The state considers an example of overcrowding as three people living in a two-bedroom unit, Adamson noted.

“Overcrowding is a huge issue for our region,” she added. “We have a number of jurisdictions that are very, very overcrowded and that is one of the biggest reasons that AMBAG got such a large increase.”

Each Regional Housing Needs Allocation cycle is also calculated based off expected housing growth, existing jobs and transit access in the area.

A Nov. 10 draft of the RHNA plan had Santa Cruz only allocated for 2,870 units. AMBAG added an additional 530 units due to the city’s higher than average percentage of white population.

Council members expressed concern over the immense increase in housing

forecast. With the end of the fifth cycle on the horizon, the city still has not completed its RHNA goals for 2023. While it has produced more than 850 housing units, it still has to develop 123 of the require 180 very-low-income units.

The boosted RHNA numbers as the city stumbles across the finish line for the current cycle caused the council to discuss pushing back against the state’s quota.

“I’m very concerned with the fact that we struggled to meet our RHNA goals — the 747 units across all those categories — and now to get to 3,400 units is going to be really challenging,” Councilmember Justin Cummings said. “We need to push back. It seems like it’s not only going to be not only difficult to reach but it’s going to take a lot of local control away.”

The sixth cycle RHNA plan is expected to be finalized

in the summer or the fall of next year. Cities will then have to submit their housing element plans by December 2023 for approval.