Biden's test: Sustaining unity as Ukraine war enters Year 2
>> One year ago, President Joe Biden was bracing for the worst as Russia massed troops in preparation to invade Ukraine.
As many in the West and even in Ukraine doubted Russian President Vladimir Putin's intentions, the White House was adamant: War was coming and Kyiv was woefully outgunned.
In Washington, Biden's aides prepared contingency plans and even drafts of what the president would say should Ukraine's capital quickly fall to Russian forces — a scenario deemed likely by most U.S. officials. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was offered help getting out of his country if he wanted it.
Yet as Russia's invasion reaches the one-year mark, the city stands and Ukraine has beaten even its own expectations, buoyed by a U.S.led alliance that has agreed to equip Ukrainian forces with tanks, advanced air defense systems, and more, while keeping the Kyiv government afloat with tens of billions of dollars in direct assistance.
For Biden, Ukraine was an unexpected crisis, but one that fits squarely into his larger foreign policy outlook
that the United States and like-minded allies are in the midst of a generational conflict to demonstrate that liberal democracies such as the U.S. can out-deliver autocracies.
In the estimation of the White House, the war transformed what had been Biden's rhetorical warnings — a staple of his 2020 campaign speeches — into an urgent call to action.
Now, as Biden prepares to travel to Poland to mark the anniversary of the war, he faces a legacy-defining moment.
“President Biden's task is to make the case for sustained free world support for Ukraine,” said Daniel Fried, a U.S. ambassador to Poland during the Clinton administration
and now a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council. “This is an important trip. And really, Biden can define the role of the free world in turning back tyranny.”
Biden administration officials are quick to direct primary credit for Ukraine's staying power to the courage of its armed forces, with a supporting role to the Russian military's ineptitude. But they also believe that without their early warnings and the massive support they orchestrated, Ukraine would have been all but wiped off the map by now.
Sustaining Ukraine's fight, while keeping the war from escalating into a potentially catastrophic wider conflict with NATO, will go down as one of Biden's enduring foreign policy accomplishments, they argue.
In Poland, Biden is set to meet with allies to reassure them of the U.S. commitment to the region and to helping Ukraine “as long as it takes.” It's a pledge that is met with skepticism both at home and abroad as the invasion enters its second year, and as Putin shows no signs of retreating from an invasion that has left more than 100,000 of his own forces killed or wounded, along with tens of thousands of Ukrainian service members and civilians — and millions of refugees.
Biden's job now is, in part, to persuade Americans — and a worldwide audience — that it's more important than ever to stay in the fight, while cautioning that an endgame is unlikely to come quickly.
His visit to Poland is an opportunity to make the case to “countries that repudiate archaic notions of imperial conquest and wars of aggression about the need to continue to support Ukraine and oppose Russia,” said John Sullivan, who stepped down as the U.S. ambassador to Moscow in September. “We always preach, we are seeking to protect a rules-based international order. It's completely done if Russia gets away with this.”