No easy (or cheap) solution for floundering Lobos

It’s time for Paul Krebs and The University of New Mexico to break out their costbenefit analysis spreadsheet. With the transfer of a fourth scholarship player, the departure of a walk-on and the graduation of two seniors from the men’s basketball program, the Lobos lost almost half of their 2016-17 roster in the span of two weeks. This can’t be explained away by simply saying this is a playing-time issue or a personality issue between a few bitter players and head coach Craig Neal.

Something is significantly wrong with the program, and it has to be fixed — fast. The $1 million buyout that Neal has in his contract is both the elephant in the room and an albatross hanging around the neck of the UNM athletic department, thanks to Krebs, UNM’s athletic director, handing Neal an extension three years ago with the buyout clause attached to it. That bird got bigger and bigger, feeding on the dysfunction surrounding the school’s cash cow and its much-maligned coach to the point where it now carries UNM around its neck. All of this begs the question: Is keeping a coach who appears to be losing control of his program worth eating a lost season in which more fans will refuse to watch a floundering program just to save that buyout money?

You have to factor in the latest bit of political gamesmanship in which Gov. Susana Martinez signaled she might force state employees to take furlough days in a cost-cutting measure while she fights with the state Legislature over next year’s fiscal budget. It appears foolhardy for Krebs to cut ties with Neal and likely add to the almost $1.5 million deficit the program produced from the 2015-16 school year (unless some enterprising booster wants to chip in for some of the cost). But the alternative isn’t palatable, either. We already saw season-ticket sales plummet to new lows (less than 9,000) not seen since the end of days with former head coach Ritchie McKay. The Pit hasn’t had a sellout since 2015, and fans can audibly whisper to their neighbors in the next seat about the muted atmosphere of a once-fearsome home crowd.

The athletic program cut season-ticket prices for the upcoming football season by 10 percent in the hopes of kick-starting the fandamonium for a successful program that won nine games and a bowl game this past season. Even if it helps draw more fans, will it be enough to plug the leak in the men’s basketball revenue drain? Let’s be real. No, it won’t.

Can a new basketball coach reinvigorate the fan base and stem the tide of negativity and indifference toward the men’s program? Truth be told (again), no. Fans want a winning program, and they will take a wait-and-see approach with the new coach. It might work after a couple of successful seasons, but that’s they key — success.

So it comes down to this: Is Neal worth keeping? In a perfect world, no. In the messy world of college athletics, yes. Spreadsheets don’t lie.