Race for governor could be tight, poll indicates
Mock ballot, funded by Pearce, shows Lujan Grisham leading by small margin
U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce, who has not formally announced whether he will seek the Republican nomination for New Mexico governor in 2018, commissioned a statewide poll that shows a race could be tight between the congressman and U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, the early Democratic frontrunner.
Asked to evaluate a mock ballot between the congressional representatives, 47 percent of poll respondents favored Lujan Grisham to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Susana Martinez, according to the poll results released Friday, while 43 percent chose Pearce; 10 percent were undecided. The margin of error for the survey was 4.1 percent.
Pearce, 69, who represented the southern portion of the state in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2002-08 and from 2010 on, has said he is consid-
ering a run and toured the northern reaches of the state last month, speaking with local officials.
That barnstorming walkabout, in conjunction with commissioning a head-to-head voter survey to gauge his prospects against a possible contender, seem to underline Pearce’s genuine interest in the state’s highest office.
Messages seeking further comment on Pearce’s intentions were not returned by his office Friday afternoon.
State Republicans were enthused by the result, remarking on the narrowness of the margin despite the fact that Pearce has not yet officially entered the race.
“Seeing Pearce is neck and neck with Lujan Grisham, I mean, a fourpoint race and she’s been running for six-plus months now … that it’s this close is very encouraging,” state Republican Party Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi said.
Dan Hazelwood, a Virginia-based consultant to Pearce’s political operation, said the result was impressive, given the headwinds Republican candidates might face in 2018.
“[Democrats] say, ‘Oh, this is going to be an easy year next year for Democrats,’ and you look at this and say, ‘Not if Steve Pearce enters this race,’ ” Hazelwood said. “If he enters, it’ll be close the whole way through.”
The Tarrance Group, an Alexandria, Va.-based national Republican strategy firm that conducted the poll, also ran an internal poll for Pearce’s successful 2010 U.S. House campaign. More than 600 likely and registered New Mexico voters were surveyed by the group last month.
Lujan Grisham, 57, announced her candidacy in December, a few weeks before she was sworn in for her third term in the House. Relinquishing a safe Democratic seat to reach for the governor’s office, the congresswoman has moved swiftly to secure her claim as the state’s Democratic heir apparent. She had raised almost $900,000 by early April, according to campaign finance reports, and has racked up several early endorsements, notably that of former Democratic U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman.
“We don’t have a comment about the poll,” Gilbert Gallegos, a communications manager for Lujan Grisham’s campaign, wrote in an email Friday. “However, it would be nice for the public to know who paid for the poll.”
Hazelwood, the consultant for Pearce’s campaign, confirmed it was commissioned by Pearce.
On the Democratic side, political neophytes Jeff Apodaca, an Albuquerque businessman whose father, Jerry Apodaca, served as governor from 1975-79, and Peter DeBenedittis, an
alcohol-abuse prevention advocate, also have announced they will seek the gubernatorial nomination.
No Republican has yet declared. Among the frequently mentioned prospective candidates, alongside Pearce, are Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry and State Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn.
Other results reported by the Tarrance Group poll suggest the circumstances of the gubernatorial race will challenge an entrant from either party.
Fifty-five percent of New Mexico voters have an unfavorable view of President Donald Trump, the poll shows, while only 41 percent are favorable toward the Republican commander in chief.
State respondents’ views of the president, which could hamstring a Republican such as Pearce, who campaigned with Trump last fall, align with national trends: Gallup reported Trump’s U.S. disapproval rating stood at 55 percent June 1, while 39 percent approved of his performance.
Only 15 percent of respondents said they think New Mexico is headed in the right direction. Seventy-three percent said the state, which regularly ranks at or near the bottom of national welfare metrics, is on the wrong track.
Fifty-four percent of respondents said they disapproved of state Democratic legislators, who control a majority in both houses; 37 percent approved.
Asked whether they would prefer a Republican governor to provide balance with the Legislature, the poll reported that 43 percent said they would; 35 percent said they would prefer a Democratic governor so that “Democrats can control things and the Democrats can pass all their programs,” according to a poll memo.
A poll question that elided the names of candidates — and simply described “a businessman and veteran who has created jobs” and a “lawyer who has a background in health care” — produced a 51 percent preference for the former, while 31 percent said they’d prefer the latter.