Fight against ISIS in Afghanistan is seemingly indefinite
Despite U.S. military’s firepower, ISIS branch gives up little ground
ACHIN, Afghanistan — A recurring rumble of explosions echoes off the barren, boulder-strewn slopes of the Spin Ghar mountains, each ordnance aimed wishfully at redoubts where Islamic State militants are suspected of hiding. Afghan and U.S. special forces listen in on enemy chatter, intercepting dozens of their radio channels. American AC-130 gunships and F-16 fighter jets whir in circles overhead, at low altitude, waiting for strike orders. Soldiers on the ground man the mortars.
The operation against the Islamic State in Khorasan — or ISIS-K, as the Syria-based group’s Afghan contingent is known — is now into its fourth month of unremitting warfare. The U.S. military has pledged to “annihilate” the group by year’s end, and the redoubled assault has contributed to a spike in U.S. airstrikes to levels not seen in Afghanistan since President Barack Obama’s troop surge in 2012. One in five of those strikes is against ISIS-K, despite it controlling only slivers of mountainous territory.
The battle is lopsided, but each day the front line here in Achin district moves back only slightly. Both local intelligence officials and the U.S. military believe that ISIS-K is replenishing its stock of fighters almost as quickly as it loses them. A sense that this may be an indefinite mission has set in.
Soon after its founding in 2014, ISIS-K descended into this district and established it as its stronghold. For nearly three years, ISIS-K held firm not just in the Spin Ghars but in the vacated villages in the fertile valley beneath them.
Over the past three years, ISISK has succeeded in carrying out ghastly attacks in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. But as Islamic State territory in Iraq and Syria is whittled away, coalition forces here are worried that Afghanistan’s notoriously ungovernable eastern provinces could become a safe haven for fleeing fighters.
“We believe that ISIS-K is not currently able to launch attacks because they are essentially being hunted,” said Capt. William Salvin, spokesman for the U.S. military here.
While the Pentagon maintains that ISIS-K is down to about 1,000 fighters across Afghanistan, from a high of 2,500 in 2015, the Afghan intelligence officer surmised that there were more than 1,000 in Achin district alone.
The fierce conflict also is scattering fighters across a wider swath of the mountainous east, ensuring a longer, more dispersed mission. Last week, the Pentagon announced that a U.S. drone strike killed Abu Sayed, ISIS-K’s leader, or emir. That took place in neighboring Konar province, indicating that the fighting has spread at least that far.
Most of ISIS-K’s fighters are thought to be Pashtuns, with few, if any, coming from Iraq and Syria. According to Salvin, the United States sees ISIS-K as more of an “authorized franchise of ISIS-main” than the Islamic State’s operation in Libya, which is more closely tied to the fighting in the Middle East. Instead, Afghan analysts say, ISIS-K derives much of its support from Pakistan’s military establishment.
“In Nangahar, it is Pakistan’s game,” said Davood Moradian, director of the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies, referring to the province in which Achin is located. Pakistan has launched its own military operation against Islamist militants on its side of the Spin Ghar range, but Moradian was skeptical that they shared the goal of the group’s elimination.
“Pakistan’s military operation against Daesh” — an alternate name for the Islamic State — “is more of a disciplinary mission: Stop your internal disagreements and concentrate on the target we’ve agreed upon, namely, the Afghan state,” he said.
Pakistan has always denied playing a destabilizing role in Afghanistan, but its neighbor’s ongoing instability has proved hugely lucrative for Pakistan’s military, which has ruled the country for almost half its 70-year existence. George W. Bush’s and Barack Obama’s administrations gave the Pakistanis a combined $33.4 billion in aid, and there is little evidence their support for Afghan militants has stopped.
Members of the U.S. Congress have been calling for years for a drastic reduction or elimination of security assistance to Pakistan, as well as ending its status as a major non-NATO ally — or even designating it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has said that the Trump administration’s new Afghanistan strategy, expected this month, will have a “regional component,” but it is unclear if that means a curtailment of U.S. aid to Pakistan. In fact, a hostile Pakistan might well pose a greater threat to the U.S. mission here.
Despite the U.S. bombing of their homes, and despite U.S. support for Pakistan, locals were largely positive about the campaign to “annihilate” ISIS-K.
“They are not Muslim. Their only religion is cruelty, and there is nothing crueler than what they have done to us,” said Mir Jamal, a proud but exhausted father of nine who has spent two years loading trucks for meager sums since escaping his village with nothing but the clothes on his back. When fighters swept into the valley, Jamal’s brother and elderly father stayed behind to protect their home. They were caught. His brother’s forearm was burned with embers from a fire, and he was waterboarded. His father was pitilessly beaten and now barely speaks.
“My father had red cheeks. He prayed five times a day. He had a big chest, and he farmed late into his life,” said Jamal, fighting back emotion. “How can we ever accept Daesh?”