War drags on, but Assad’s leadership is intact

BEIRUT — Although Syria’s bloody six-year war is far from over, one result is already becoming clear: President Bashar Assad looks as if he is here to stay.

On the battlefield, no one remains who is willing and able to topple him. The rebel forces are waning, and President Donald Trump has canceled the CIA program that provided them with arms and support. The Islamic State, with its own agenda to rule Syria as a caliphate, is being routed from its strongholds.

Regional powers, foreign officials and Syrians themselves are increasingly operating as if he will rule for years to come, albeit over a greatly reduced country. His allies have begun to trumpet what they see as their impending victory, and his government is talking about rebuilding a shattered country, hosting an international trade fair last month and signing a deal with Iran to rebuild its power grid.

Even some longtime rebel supporters have grown warweary and started to embrace the inevitable.

Since the government reclaimed control of the mountain town of Madaya after a prolonged siege, life there has improved for those who remained. The snipers left, electricity returned, food appeared in markets. Cafes reopened and people starting going out.

“We are sick of the war,” a teacher there said via instant message, speaking on the condition of anonymity so as not to be targeted for her past opposition to the government. “We want to live peacefully and safe, and we can’t do that unless we are with the regime.”

These developments do not suggest that Assad has an easy road ahead. He remains a pariah in much of the world, presiding over a blasted, divided land. If he emerges victorious, he is likely to be left with a weak state that is beholden to foreign powers and lacks the resources to rebuild.

But his endurance has serious ramifications for the country and for the Middle East, affecting the prospects of Syria’s future stability, of refugees to return home and of the Syrian government to tap international funds to rebuild.

It is also a grim, late act in the Arab Spring uprisings that broke out in 2011. While protests and armed insurrections removed from power the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, Assad has remained.

Syria’s conflict began in 2011 with a popular uprising against Assad, which his security forces sought to suppress with overwhelming force. The opposition took up arms, and the United States, Saudi Arabia and others endorsed the rebels’ cause, backing them politically and giving them arms and cash.

Now, Assad has succeeded in dispelling the rebel threat, largely because of the steadfast financial and military support of his foreign backers.

His government controls Syria’s largest cities and most of its remaining people, who generally live in better conditions than those elsewhere in the country. His allies — Russia, Iran and Hezbollah — have stood by him, bolstering his depleted military and helping it advance.

But Assad is in many ways a limited head of state. Much of Syria’s territory remains out of his hands, and foreign powers have carved out spheres of influence, undermining his claim to rule all of Syria.