First dustings of snow but, forecast a downer for skiers
Warmer temps, average precipitation might force mountains to ‘make it work’
This year’s ski season likely will get off to a slow start, according to the autumn weather outlook. Early forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show that Northern and Central New Mexico are expected to be warmer than average, with average or slightly below average precipitation, at least through December.
The grim news for those eager for ample powder on the slopes came as the city was drenched Wednesday in rain that fell steadily throughout the day, and the Sangre de Cristo peaks were dusted with snow. The rainy weather was expected to continue, with thunderstorms possible until Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.
“It’s hard to say at this point,” Chris Luckett, with the National Weather Service in Albuquerque, said of the winter outlook. “But as far as skiing,” he said, “it might be kind of difficult.”
Models from the Climate Prediction Center show above-average temperatures are expected throughout most of the U.S. this fall. New Mexico, it happens, is nestled inside a swath of the nation where temperatures are particularly likely to exceed the season’s average.
For example, Luckett said, a December day in Albuquerque with an average high temperature around 45 or in the 50s could see a high in the 60s this year.
The current weather in Northern New Mexico is about average for late September, the National Weather Service’s Dwight Koehn said Wednesday, thanks in part to this week’s rainy weather, which has cooled temperatures throughout the region and covered some mountain ranges with light snow.
As New Mexico heads into fall, water reserves in the northern and central areas of the state are sufficient, officials said.
Heavy snowpack in the New Mexico and Colorado mountains last winter, coupled with late-spring snows, fed what the Bureau of Reclamation’s Albuquerque office called the state’s “most robust spring runoff since 2005.” Summer monsoon rains added to that reserve in reservoirs, said Mary Carlson, a spokeswoman for the office.
The supply provided plenty of irrigation water this year, Carlson said.
The Santa Fe municipal reservoirs were at 36.75 percent of capacity Wednesday, compared to about 24 percent this time last year.
And for what might be the first time in a decade, the National Weather Service’s drought-monitoring map doesn’t show a single New Mexico county suffering from drought conditions or even extreme dryness.
“Dry and hot are always bad news in water management, but we are entering this fall in a better place than where we have been in years past,” Carlson said. “Most of our reservoirs, if not all, have more water in them now than they did last fall at this time. We’re in decent shape.”
The Bureau of Reclamation won’t get too worked up about water levels this fall, Carlson said. What officials really hope to see is heavy snow in mid- and late-winter months that will build up snowpack and then replenish local reservoirs in the spring.
“It’s not too detrimental in the next couple of months,” she said. “We will sit back and watch, and wait and see what happens this winter.”
Tom Long, the general manager of the Pajarito Mountain Ski Area, said he is remaining positive about the upcoming snow season. After 51 years in the ski business in New Mexico, Long said, he’s learned a few tricks of the trade: It’s better not to comment on the weather until snow is actually on the ground; winter sports enthusiasts typically only trust forecasts that lean in their favor; and bushy squirrels mean good snow.
Recently, he’s noticed a lot of fat-tailed squirrels.
“I’m interpreting that as a good sign,” Long said.
“It’s part of the lore,” he explained: “a lot of woolly worms, squirrels gathering a lot of nuts and squirrels with extra bushy tales. They’re preparing for a cold winter.”
Ideal conditions for the ski hill, he said, are cold, sunny days and cloudy nights that bring snow to the mountains. But even if that doesn’t happen, New Mexico ski resorts are well versed in manufacturing snow to build up a good base.
“Making it work,” Long said, “that’s the name of the game.”