Poll: Voters favor Dems in midterms
Voters say they prefer Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives over Republicans by the widest margin in over a decade, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll — a fresh sign of trouble for the GOP majority one year before the midterm elections.
But Democrats’ effort to convert widespread disapproval of President Donald Trump into victories in 2018 could be undercut by lower turnout, with Republicans expressing just as much motivation to vote in next year’s elections.
A slim 51 percent majority of registered voters say that if the election were held today, they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, while 40 percent say they would choose the Republican.
That’s the biggest spread ina Post-ABC survey since October 2006, just weeks before a midterm in which Democrats won back control of the House and Senate amid deep dissatisfaction with then-President George W. Bush and the Iraq War.
In recent history, regardless of the political climate, Democrats have tended to hold an advantage on this “generic ballot” question, which does not name specific candidates. On the eve of the 2014 and 2010 midterms, both banner elections for the GOP, Post-ABC surveys found Republicans trailed Democrats by three and five percentage points among registered voters, respectively. Those margins flipped in Republicans’ favor among the smaller population of likely voters who were more motivated to turn out. The latest Post-ABC survey does not measure likely voters given that the election is still a year away.
Still, an edge of 11 points, even among registered voters, is an encouraging sign for Democrats a year before Trump’s first midterm — an election cycle that historically has been unkind to the sitting president’s party.
The findings come as congressional Republicans are trying to rehabilitate their brand after months of infighting and a failure to produce any major legislative achievements despite controlling the House, Senate and White House.
This fall, they embarked on a do-or-die push to rewrite the nation’s tax laws, believing that a successful effort will give them a much-needed political boost headed into the midterm campaign. If they fail, many in the party fear, they could see their congressional majorities wiped out.
The GOP is also contending with unwelcome distractions, most notably an investigation into potential Russian collusion with Trump campaign officials.
An early slate of GOP retirements also has complicated the party’s effort to retain its House majority. In some key swing districts, Republicans will not carry the advantage of incumbency.
The Post-ABC poll finds Republicans are more unified in support of their party’s congressional candidates than about Trump’s job performance. While 76 percent of Republican-leaning registered voters approve of Trump, a larger 88 percent say they would vote for the Republican House candidate in their district if the election were held today. That level of unity is on par with 90 percent of Democratic-leaning voters who support their party’s candidates.
Democrats face their own challenges. They have yet to resolve divisions stemming from the 2016 primary between supporters of insurgent Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and backers of former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.
Those divisions have come roaring back to the national political conversation recently, as former Democratic National Committee interim chairman Donna Brazile reveals in her upcoming book that Clinton’s team had some day-to-day control over the party early in the campaign.