Lessons from the blue wave
The pundits and the analysts will have a field day figuring out what just happened on Tuesday night, when Democrats won handily in off-year elections. So handily that the vote is being called a “wave” election, the sort that results in power changing hands on a large scale.
Democrats will serve as governors in New Jersey and Virginia, and it’s entirely possible that those victories came because President Donald Trump is so unpopular. Especially in Virginia, where GOP candidate Ed Gillespie embraced Trumpism, if not the president himself, voters made it plain that the politics of bullying and intimidation need to be retired.
Of course, Trump’s take is that Gillespie should have embraced him, not just the message. If GOP candidates take that to heart, the Democratic swing could grow wider in the midterms of 2018. Or, as BBC reporter Anthony Zurcher wrote in his election analysis: “If this is the lesson Mr. Trump takes from Tuesday’s results — that Republicans either embrace him or face defeat — then 2018 is going to be an even bigger referendum on Trump’s presidency than 2017 was. That is a thought that will keep a lot of Republican officeholders up at night.”
For anyone who cares about health care, an election in Maine is important, too. Voters there passed a ballot measure calling for the expansion of the state’s Medicaid program. That’s hardly good news for the GOP lawmakers trying to reduce health care options for Americans.
Other important lessons came from races down the ticket, especially in the contests for the Virginia House of Delegates, about as local as it gets. These lessons are less about politics in terms of message and more about politics in terms of strategy.
In Virginia, the Democratic Party recruited candidates, contested even entrenched incumbents and worked hard knocking door to door and meeting voters. According to The Washington Post, “Democrats fielded the most candidates in recent memory, including a record number of women.”
Virginia Democrats took nothing for granted — and that strategy is bipartisan and can work for any minority party seeking to regain power. So potent was this method that Democrats in Virginia ousted at least a dozen Republicans and took three seats currently occupied by Republicans who decided not to run for another term. Four races are being recounted — they are that close — so whether the GOP or Democrats ultimately will lead the House of Delegates remains in limbo.
In historic terms, what happened Tuesday marks the biggest shift in political control of the Virginia Legislature since Reconstruction after the Civil War. That does not happen solely because voters are unhappy with an unpopular politician. It happens because a political party laid the groundwork to take advantage of that anger.
What a concept in politics. Contest every race (or as close as you can get). Knock on plenty of doors. Listen to voters. Politicians and parties who adopt such tried-and-true methods will go home winners, whether on a state level or trying to take back the U.S. House of Representatives. What happened in Virginia can be a model for the nation.
The election on Tuesday offers evidence that America, not even a year into Trump’s first term, wants change. What remains to be seen? Will national Democrats be nimble enough to take advantage of this historic opportunity? Tune in next year.