Waiting for Old Man Winter
As ski season approaches, temperatures have been hitting record-breaking highs
On Friday, the same day that some of the region’s most dedicated skiers and snowboarders lined up for the opening day of the annual Santa Fe Ski Swap, New Mexico’s November temperatures were headed toward the record books.
The warm and dry fall outlook is likely to continue as the theme of winter as well, forecasters say.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center says New Mexico has a 40 percent to 60 percent chance of higher-than-average temperatures from December through February.
And, with the exception of the very northeastern corner of the state, Northern New Mexico has a 33 percent to 40 percent chance of being drier than average.
“The [forecasts] don’t tell you how warm you’re going to be. They just give you the chance that it’s going to be warmer than normal,” explained Brian Guyer, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Albuquerque. “If the pattern we’ve had over the last three weeks is any indication: quite warm.”
The driving factor is a La Niña, a weather pattern that is expected to deliver delight to skiers in the nation’s Northwest, and winter sports envy across the southern swath of the United States.
Parts of the Northwest are
already seeing heavy mountain snow. Snow levels are above average around Washington, The Seattle Times reports, with one part of the Olympic Mountains holding more than 500 percent of normal snowpack for this time of year.
In the meantime, Friday’s high of 73 at the Albuquerque International Sunport was the hottest temperature on record for that date, Guyer said, beating the previous record of 70 degrees set in 1981.
In fact, he said, temperatures for the whole month of November could break records. Already, the first two weeks of the month have been the hottest recorded, Guyer said, and the “outlook for the next two weeks is above normal and dry.”
The highest recorded average for November temperatures at Santa Fe’s airport — where records only date back to 1941 — is 45.5 degrees, Guyer said.
So far this month, the average high temperature recorded at that location is 48.3 degrees, according to Guyer.
“It’s really going to need to cool down for us not to break that record,” he said.
Such a cooldown, he added “doesn’t look likely.”
While the temperature is expected to drop on Saturday as a quick bout of cold weather sweeps through Northern New Mexico, that chill won’t last long, Guyer said. National Weather Service predictions for Thanksgiving day list Santa Fe’s high temperatures in the lower to mid-60s.
Thanksgiving Day is always Ski Santa Fe’s target to open for the season, according to Candy DeJoia, spokeswoman for the resort. They missed that opening date last year, she said, but made it the two previous years.
Snowmaking equipment has been running since early November on days when the weather dips down to ideal snow-making conditions, DeJoia said, and as of Friday that Thanksgiving opening date was still on the schedule.
“We’re always optimistic,” DeJoia said. “We’re in the snow industry, and you always have to stay optimistic.”
For some of the skiers lined up early for first pick of goodies at the 2017 Ski Swap, chances of limited snow were not enough to keep them off the mountains.
“If I can get on snow, that’s good for me,” said Dominic Alei, a skier from Santa Fe who said he drives up to Taos to ski on winter weekends. “I’ll ski if it’s man-made, with only a couple of runs open.”
Jesus Corrales, a Santa Fe mechanic who frequents Ski Santa Fe, echoed that sentiment. He’ll head up to the nearest runs as long as they’re open.
However, he added, each winter he has family come up from Mexico for a ski trip. This year, he hopes that it will be worth it.
“For me, if it’s not much, I just take it, no problem,” Corrales said. “For them, coming from Mexico … I hope there’s enough snow for them to come ski.”
Eager skiers can head up to Sipapu Ski Resort or Purgatory in Durango, Colo., both of which are slated to open Saturday.
Taos Ski Valley is aiming to open on Thanksgiving Day, and Pajarito Mountain near Los Alamos lists Dec. 16th as a tentative opening date.