Population growth in N.M. slows to crawl

UNM demographers expect lull will continue for decades as residents age, have fewer babies, move elsewhere

With fewer births, more deaths and nearly no migration into New Mexico at a time when young people are seeking opportunities elsewhere, the state is in the midst of its slowest population growth since statehood — and that is not likely to change.

“We’ve had nominal growth,” said Robert Rhatigan, associate director of Geospatial and Population Studies at The University of New Mexico. “Births are down, deaths are up and migration is out.”

Demographers at UNM estimate that with heavy levels of migration out of the state, New Mexico’s population has barely budged since 2010, growing by just 45,000 people since the 2010 census. They place the total number of residents at 2.1 million.

Barring an unexpected event, Rhatigan said, this trend will continue. Over the next 25 years, New Mexico might add just 300,000 more people, pushing the total to 2.4 million in the year 2040, though estimates won’t be revised until next year. That means yearly increases of about 15,000 people.

After expanding by more than 38 percent from 1990 to 2015, the state population’s total growth from 2015 to 2040 is expected to be 14.4 percent, Rhatigan said.

On an annual basis, the nation as a whole is seeing population growth of about 1 percent. Colorado is the secondfastest growing state, with a population boost of 2 percent a year. From July 2014 to July 2015, Colorado added more than 100,000 residents.

It’s a different story, however, in the

Land of Enchantment. “We’re seeing modest growth, and there’s not much reason to think that will change,” Rhatigan said last week at the annual Data Users Conference sponsored by UNM’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research. “The high in-migration growth rate will not return anytime soon.”

Not only is New Mexico aging faster than the rest of the United States, and thereby seeing more deaths, Rhatigan said, but it is seeing fewer births, especially among Hispanic families. That means the natural growth rate in the state has slowed considerably. In the mid-1990s, the typical Hispanic woman was expected to have almost three children, while today that has dropped to 2.15.

That fact, coupled with the exodus of young people, is leading to the revised population forecasts, he said.

Of those leaving New Mexico, the largest groups are professionals age 40 to 54 and children age 5 to 19. Not only are educated workers leaving for more opportunity, they are taking their families, said Jeff Mitchell, an economist with the Bureau of Business and Economic Research, who also spoke at the conference.

Mitchell pointed out that since the end of the recession, New Mexico has ranked 48th nationally in the growth of business and professional jobs and 45th in the growth of financial services jobs.

He said one 1 in 40 bachelor’s degree holders in New Mexico left the state between 2011 and 2016, and those who left were the kind of people with families who often buy cars, homes and other consumer goods.

“We are losing young people, and we are losing people who are educated,” Mitchell said.

Mitchell also said the number of transplants to New Mexico from nearby states like Texas and Colorado has not significantly changed. What has changed is the number of people coming from the South and Midwestern Rust Belt states, the type of mobile worker attracted to a growing economy with opportunity.

“We are no longer gathering people from those parts of the country,” he said, “while other states are.”

Among other trends presented at last week’s conference: New Mexico’s population is 2 percent more Hispanic than in 2010 — with 48.5 percent identifying themselves as Hispanic in 2016.

Another reality is that the slight population growth was clustered in just 12 counties between 2010 and 2016. The increases were logged in Bernalillo, Doña Ana, Sandoval and Santa Fe counties, along with McKinley, Lea, Chaves, Otero, Eddy, Curry, Taos and Cibola counties. The other 21 counties in the state have seen a decline in population since 2010.

Of those leaving New Mexico, the largest groups are professionals age 40 to 54 and children 5 to 19.