Unpopular Trump poses a 2018 puzzle for Republican governors
AUSTIN, Texas — For nearly a decade, meetings of the Republican Governors Association were buoyant, even giddy affairs, as the party — lifted by enormous political donations and a backlash against the Obama administration — achieved overwhelming control of state governments.
But a sense of foreboding hung over the group’s gathering in Austin this past week, as President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and Republicans’ unexpectedly drastic losses in elections this month in Virginia, New Jersey and suburbs from Philadelphia to Seattle raised the specter of a political reckoning in 2018.
“I do think Virginia was a wake-up call,” said Gov. Bill Haslam of Tennessee, who took over here as chairman of the governors’ association. “There’s a pretty strong message there. When Republicans lose white married women, that’s a strong message.”
In a series of closed-door meetings, governors tangled over how best to avoid being tainted by Trump, and debated the delicate task of steering Trump’s political activities away from states where he might be unhelpful. Several complained directly to Vice President Mike Pence, prodding him to ensure that the White House intervenes only in races in which its involvement is welcome.
A larger group of governors from agricultural and auto-producing states warned Pence that Trump’s proposed withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement could damage them badly.
Republicans have long expected that the midterm campaign will prove difficult. But the drubbing they suffered in Virginia, where they lost the governorship by 9 percentage points, along with at least 15 state House seats threaded throughout the state’s suburbs, has the party’s governors worried that 2018 could be worse than feared. Voters appear eager to punish Trump. “Any time the titular head of the party is underwater, obviously there’s going to be issues there. You can’t just ignore that,” said Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, who is facing re-election in a state that Trump lost by less than a percentage point.
The battle for Congress, already center stage, will draw only more attention if the embattled Roy Moore loses an Alabama Senate race in December, jeopardizing Republican control of the chamber. But the contests for governor are perhaps more consequential.
Next year’s statehouse races will reorder the political map for a decade, because many of the 36 governors elected will have a strong hand in redrawing state legislative and congressional boundaries after the 2020 census.