Lessons from a shocking win
In defeating Republican Roy Moore in Alabama for a Senate seat, it is essential that Democrats don’t become too full of themselves. Alabama is one of the reddest of the red states, so much so that voters there very nearly chose a man credibly accused of child molestation rather than elect a Democrat. That Doug Jones persevered to victory is a result of a unique set of circumstances — and in them, rather than overreaching, look for lessons for all candidates who want to win, including right here in New Mexico.
The first lesson is the most obvious. Bad candidates often lead to losses. In New Mexico, back in 1997, when then-Congressman Bill Richardson was appointed as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, his House seat opened up. Eric Serna was the pick of the party honchos in a heavily Democratic district. Easy win, right? Not exactly.
Third Congressional District voters mistrusted Serna, who had a history of ethical challenges, and rather than send Serna to the House, voters chose Republican Bill Redmond (Green candidate Carol Miller affected the special election as well). Now, that did not mean the 3rd Congressional District had become a reliable GOP district. In 1998, Tom Udall won the House seat back for Democrats (even with Miller still in the race) and it has remained blue since, with U.S. Rep. Ben Ray Luján now occupying the seat.
Alabama voters, likewise, showed they would forfeit their favored party’s advantage if it meant not electing a possible child molester. Rural white voters did not vote at their usual strength, staying home, while many white urban voters chose a Democrat rather than voting Republican as usual. Senior Alabama GOP Sen. Richard Selby, to his credit, went on a Sunday news show to say he had written in a candidate rather than vote for Moore. Such unique dynamics show soon-to-be Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is hardly a lock for re-election.
It does mean, though, that Democrats should not give up on winning, even in deep red America. The right candidate, a smart ground game and a cogent message can translate into victories. With Jones’ upset, most political observers believe Democrats have a path to retake a Senate majority (and, if President Donald Trump remains toxic, perhaps even the House). There is talk that in Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz is disliked even by those who vote for him, upstart Beto O’Rourke, a Democratic congressman from El Paso, might be able to eke out a victory. Unlikely, but possible.
For New Mexico, the importance of Alabama’s ground game should not be overlooked. The local NAACP chapters in Alabama were asked to call every registered voter who did not vote in 2016; canvassers went door to door in Mobile and other urban areas (which didn’t happen in 2016); more than a dozen organizations offered rides to the polls; billboards were placed in areas that normally advertised fast food, not candidates; and the NAACP used school alumni parties to hand out fliers with registration deadlines, absentee deadlines and voter ID laws (and took those door to door as well).
In other words, rather than spending all the money on television advertising, resources were directed to getting out the vote — similar to what Democrats did in special elections in Virginia and New Jersey, where they also won earlier this year.
Lessons for Republicans? There are many. Conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin of The Washington Post says the loss in Alabama should inspire the GOP to turn away from Trump. Otherwise, the party will lose.
She writes, “Let’s not forget, however, that Moore, a disgraced former judge (twice booted from the court) and an accused child molester who is openly racist and homophobic — received 91 percent of the Republican vote. Republicans, at least in Alabama, remain deeply mired in their theology of white grievance and are largely indifferent, if not hostile, to reality. Republicans were not persuaded; they were outvoted. Should they persist in their Trumpian cult and refuse to emerge from their right-wing media bubble, they face being outvoted again and again by enraged non-Republicans — and in places far less Republican than Alabama.”
For GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Pearce, who has supported Trump’s tax bill and efforts to repeal “Obamacare” in Congress, the time to begin making a pivot to attract a wider base of support is fast approaching. With Trump unpopular and growing more so, it will be fascinating to see how Pearce broadens his appeal to New Mexico voters. As we are beginning to realize, governing to and for the base is a long-term losing strategy. Candidates would be wise to study Alabama and learn its lessons. There are plenty to absorb.