Democrats are optimistic about 2018
Thanks mostly to President Donald Trump, Democrats believe they are poised for good things in 2018: the possibility of taking control of the House and gains elsewhere in the midterm elections. But planning victory laps would be premature. Whatever their prospects for the fall campaigns, the Democrats are still in need of renovation and renewal.
Many current indicators point to rough days ahead for the Republicans, unless passage of the tax bill somehow changes their fortunes. From the president’s low approval ratings to the high energy among rank-and-file Democrats, as well as recent polls showing that the public prefers Democratic candidates for the House by a sizeable margin, there is ample evidence that the GOP faces a typically bad midterm election year, or possibly worse. One caveat to all that: In the era of Trump, nothing should be taken for granted in terms of traditional metrics.
The Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to take control of the House and a net of two to secure the majority in the Senate. The Cook Political Report lists 17 Republican-held seats as toss-ups and one leaning to the Democrats. Another 22 GOP seats are in the “lean Republican” category, meaning they are at risk next year. In contrast, Cook’steam lists just four Democratic seats as tossups and five as “lean Democrat.”
The availability of competitive House districts is one reason there is a growing consensus, or at least a rising chorus, proclaiming a tsunami-in-the-making out across America. If that turns out to be the case, Democrats would have the power to frustrate Trump’s and the GOP’s agenda.
A Democratic takeover of the House would transform the politics of Washington. But would it necessarily represent a transformation of the Democratic Party?
Democrats face a series of questions about their future as a party that now controls nothing in Washington. Among those questions are such basics as their agenda, their geographic limitations and their leadership.
Democrats stand for many things that are popular with a majority of Americans. They oppose cutting tax rates for the wealthiest taxpayers. They oppose changes in Medicare and Social Security that would reduce future benefits or notably alter the eligibility requirements. And they want some immigrants, known as “Dreamers,” to be able to stay in this country and not face the threat of deportation over the fact that that they were brought to the United States illegally by their parents.
But there are some hard questions for the Democrats. What is their health care policy likely to be? Stand pat with the Affordable Care Act after some modifications? Move toward a single payer plan, as Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and others now advocate?
What is their economic policy other than rhetoric about helping working families? What is their response to concerns among many workers about the impact of globalization?
Democrats recoil at Trump’s “Make America Great, Again” slogan as one that would take the country back to a time when women and minorities had fewer rights and opportunities, but they struggle to enunciate a message that resonates powerfully.
The party’s geographical challenges will be put to the test in 2018. One reason for Democrats’ optimism is that there are more than a dozen vulnerable House seats in blue states and several others in suburban areas in states Trump won but that have gone Democratic in the past. A fuller test of the party’s ability to rebuild will come in gubernatorial races in the Midwest.
Among states in that region with contests in 2018, Republicans currently hold the governorships in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa. The Democrats’ best opportunity will be in Illinois, their worst in Iowa. They also must defend governorships in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Those results will offer clues about the rebirth of the party.
The party’s leadership also is an issue of concern. In the House, the top three Democratic leaders are in their late 70s. In the Senate, the two top leaders are in their late 60s or early 70s. None show signs of stepping back.
Among the party’s prospective presidential candidates, Sanders is 76, former Vice President Joe Biden is 75, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is 68. One issue for Democratic voters that year will be whether they are prepared to look to a different generation or not.
Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont and former chair of the Democratic National Committee, has been a one-person chorus calling for a generational change in leadership for his party in 2020. He has said he would like to see his party nominate someone age 55 or younger, preferably 50 or younger. His argument is that the party needs a new generation leader who can speak to the future more authentically than someone a decade or two older.