Apodaca TV spot touts goal of 225K new jobs

‘Dream’ involves tapping $1B in permanent funds to spur growth in New Mexico

The new year is not quite here, but one candidate for governor in 2018 is already airing campaign ads and making quite a pledge.

Democrat Jeff Apodaca’s campaign says in a 60-second spot airing this holiday season that his economic plan will create 225,000 new jobs.

Is that possible in a state that is growing older and faces an exodus of young workers?

Sure, at least mathematically.

But The New Mexican found it also would require a streak of economic growth the likes of which the state has not seen in more than 20 years and unlikely political consensus on

what would amount to a $1 billion stimulus program.

A businessman positioning himself as a political outsider in the Democratic primary, Apodaca says the state could meet his goal if the number of New Mexicans in employment grows at a rate of 2.5 percent to 3 percent each year for six to eight years.

That is true, but the state’s workforce has not grown at that clip for any sustained period of time since the early 1990s. The number of employed New Mexicans grew by more than 2.7 percent each year from 1992-95, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The state did not reach that rate of growth again until 2006. And it did not last. Economists’ projections for the coming years are more sober. A report issued by the Department of Workforce Solutions in 2016 forecast that 919,743 New Mexicans would be in employment by 2024 — a record but still short of Apodaca’s goals. Adding 225,000 new jobs from current levels would lead to a workforce in the state of about 1.07 million.

In recent years, 15 new jobs have been enough to merit a news release from the Governor’s Office.

Apodaca, the son of a former governor, argues such growth is not unreasonable, given that the job markets in many neighboring states have been on a tear. Utah has seen job growth of more than 2.9 percent every year since 2012. It had a similar streak in the middle of the last decade and during the 1990s. Likewise, the job markets in Colorado and Arizona have grown by at least 2.5 percent for two out of the last three years.

The Democrat contends New Mexico’s more modest projections do not necessarily hold because he is proposing to do something that has not been done before in the state.

To spur growth, Apodaca proposes using about $1.2 billion from the state’s permanent funds to pay for infrastructure, job training and economic development. New Mexico’s various permanent funds total about $23 billion. The largest, the Land Grant Permanent Fund, already helps finance the state’s education system. Some Democrats, particularly in the more progressive wing of the party, have proposed using a bigger share of the returns on those investments to expand early childhood education programs or develop infrastructure like broadband and roads.

Some have made this a moral issue, with groups including the Catholic Church questioning the size of the investment funds at the same time New Mexico faces persistently high rates of child poverty. Apodaca calls it “sinful.”

“The mindset is cut, cut, cut because we don’t invest, invest, invest,” Apodaca said, referring to recent rounds of state budget cuts in the face of financial shortfalls. “… Once we start investing into our New Mexican businesses, the economy will turn around, people will get better jobs, private capital will come in and invest.”

But voters would have to approve a constitutional amendment to change how returns on these investments are distributed. Changing the biggest fund, the Land Grant Permanent Fund, would require an act of Congress, too. And even some Democrats are bound to be opposed, wary of drawing down the state’s endowments.

Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham, one of Apodaca’s opponents in the Democratic primary, said his figure of 225,000 new jobs is “not credible.” In her jobs plan, she calls for using the Land Grant Permanent Fund to expand access to prekindergarten programs. Lujan Grisham added, however: “I am not proposing a specific percentage [of the fund] but will work closely with the Legislature to design a fiscally responsible proposal we can offer to New Mexico voters.”

Congressman Steve Pearce, the only Republican running for governor, declined to comment on Apodaca’s ad. But he has been critical of the idea of using a larger share of the endowment funds.

Regardless, Apodaca’s pledge and his plan for fulfilling it are bound to stir debate over the role of the state’s sizable investments, pitting a populist proposal against long-running conservative skeptics — even in his own party.

Narrated by former ABC News reporter Sam Donaldson, the ad began airing during the Christmas holiday. According to Federal Communications Commission filings, the ad is airing on local TV stations in the Albuquerque and Las Cruces media markets and on cable.

Asked if it was too early in the election season for television advertising, Apodaca said: “We want to hit the airwaves over the holidays because we knew families and friends were all going to be together. … I wanted to be part of [their] conversation.”

And as Lujan Grisham heads into her second year on the campaign trail after launching her bid in December 2016, Apodaca added that he wanted to remind New Mexicans “there is someone else running for governor.”