NOAA says 2018 hurricane season may be close to ‘normal,’ not as bad as last year

After a record-breaking and destructive hurricane season in 2017, the next one looks closer to “normal” or slightly above normal. This is what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Thursday morning, citing a burgeoning weak El Niño and nearaverage sea surface temperatures, which is expected to make conditions a little more hostile for hurricane formation than in 2017.

Last year, 17 named storms developed in the Atlantic, and 10 of those went on to become hurricanes. It was the most active and destructive hurricane season since 2005.

In 2018, NOAA is calling for: 10 to 16 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes and 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3 or stronger).

The average number of named storms is 12, with six reaching hurricane status and three becoming major hurricanes.

“There are no climate signals that suggest this season will be extremely active like last season, or extremely weak,” said Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster for NOAA at a news conference on Thursday.

Bell also noted that it’s impossible at this point to determine which parts of the Atlantic will be the most active, offering little comfort to the regions that were hit hard in 2017, such as Puerto Rico and the Gulf Coast.

Colorado State University, which has generated annual hurricane outlooks since 1984, thinks the season will be slightly more active than normal. In its outlook released in early April, the school’s hurricane research group predicted 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.