Poll: Governor’s race a dead heat
Lujan Grisham has 2 percentage point lead over Pearce, within margin of error
The race to replace New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez has narrowed, according to a new survey by a noted college pollster.
U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham leads U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce by 2 points in the latest snapshot of the New Mexico gubernatorial contest 2½ months from Election Day.
Lujan Grisham, the Democratic congresswoman who represents the Albuquerque area, held a 42-40 edge over Pearce, the Republican from Hobbs, in a poll of 500 registered voters that was released Monday. Eighteen percent were undecided. The margin of error was 4.6 percent.
The 2 percent margin was trumpeted by the Republican Governors Association and the Pearce campaign; the former called it a “virtual toss-up.” The state Republican Party declared the race “tied.”
“Democrats should be panicking over these numbers,” state Republican chairman Ryan Cangiolosi said.
The poll was conducted over the weekend via automated landline and online by Emerson College of Boston, one of the most reliable U.S. pollsters since fall 2016 as determined in May by the statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight.
The poll also showed Martinez, a Republican, with an approval rating of 30 percent. A majority of New Mexicans disapprove of President Donald Trump, and 35 percent approve, well below the national average.
Both gubernatorial candidates, meanwhile, held the advantage in their home congressional districts: Lujan Grisham by 16 percent in the Democratic Albuquerque metro area, Pearce by 8 percent in the vast Southern New Mexico district he has represented for all but one term since 2003.
Notably, however, Pearce led 46 percent to 42 percent in the 3rd Congressional District, the Democratic stronghold that encompasses the northern half of the state and includes Santa Fe.
“We are getting tremendous feedback from Steve’s message that he is the leader for New Mexico who will create jobs,” Pearce spokesman Kevin Sheridan said, mentioning the recent endorsement of former Gov. Jerry Apodaca, a Democrat.
Democrats such as Apodaca, he said, “continue to come over to our campaign because they know Steve Pearce will put New Mexico above party.”
A 2 percent margin stands in contrast to a pair of polls conducted shortly after the state primaries in June, which showed Lujan Grisham leading by 13 percent in one and 9 percent in another.
Last summer, however, before Pearce had formally entered the race, a statewide poll commissioned by his organization showed a slimmer Lujan Grisham lead, 47 percent to 43 percent.
A spokesman for the Lujan Grisham campaign, James Hallinan, said the “veracity of this poll is questionable for many reasons including that [it is] registered voters, not likely voters, no live calls were made, and the sample is not representative of the New Mexico electorate.”
A plurality of respondents view both candidates favorably. Lujan Grisham’s numbers, however, are more favorable and less unfavorable, with 45 percent favorable and 29 percent unfavorable. Pearce is viewed favorably by 41 percent and unfavorably by 31 percent.
The “very competitive” race is breaking sharply on gender lines, the pollsters reported, with 45 percent of women in favor of Lujan Grisham and 45 percent of men for Pearce.