Polls, politics and the race to succeed Susana
Traditionally, Labor Day is the beginning of the general election political season. With 24-7 Twitter, rapid-fire response emails, special interest money for TV ads and blockbuster polls, even the dog days of summer are soaked in politics as well as sun.
Take the latest news of August, with former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson deciding to enter the race for U.S. Senate as a Libertarian. He takes on U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich, a Democratic incumbent, and the GOP nominee, businessman Mick Rich.
While Johnson is a decided underdog, his universal name recognition and penchant for shooting from the hip — thus, making headlines — mean a more interesting race for Senate than had been predicted. We hope, too, that the race becomes substantive, with vigorous debate about issues that matter to New Mexicans. Issues, not trivialities, please.
For all the hoopla about Johnson’s entrance into the Senate race, however, the top contest in New Mexico is the race for governor, with two members of New Mexico’s congressional delegation vying to succeed GOP Gov. Susana Martinez, who isn’t eligible for a third term because of limits.
U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat, and U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce, a Republican, are enmeshed in what appears to be a closer-than-expected race. A new poll of 500 registered voters has Lujan Grisham at 42 percent to 40 percent. It was conducted by the respected Emerson College of Boston, using landlines and online tools.
State GOP officials are crowing that the race is statistically tied; we would point out that the poll does have a margin of error rate of 4.6 percent. That could put Lujan Grisham almost 7 percent ahead or a few points behind, depending on which way the margin of error swings.
Earlier polls have revealed Lujan Grisham in the lead, with margins varying from a 4-point to a 13-point spread. The seat nationally is considered one of the top possibilities for a Democratic takeover. Adding credence to that is New Mexico’s penchant for alternating political parties at the top. After all, it has been more than 30 years since a governor leaving office because of term limits handed off to someone of the same party — that was Gov. Bruce King turning over the reins to Gov. Toney Anaya in 1982. Then, it was two Democrats. Steve Pearce supporters want to see successive GOP governors.
Still, we aren’t even at Labor Day. Many New Mexicans are worrying about putting their kids back in school or having one more fun trip before September rolls around. They, unlike the chattering classes, are paying scant attention to politics.
Still, closer-then-expected polling should help the candidates focus.
For Pearce and his supporters, the numbers have to be a boost. The race can be won. He’s not a sacrificial candidate, unlike his last statewide venture against Democrat Tom Udall in the 2008 U.S. Senate election. Then, Pearce lost 38.7 percent to Udall’s 61.3 percent.
For Lujan Grisham and her backers, the tight race — at least in this poll — should be a kick in the pants. It gives her additional incentive to take nothing for granted. She must work hard, sharpen her message and produce more dynamic advertising.
Her opponent has focused on jobs, an attractive, nonpartisan message that paints him as a more moderate, can-do candidate. That’s at odds with the reality of Pearce’s quite conservative record and penchant for siding with President Donald Trump on such issues as opposing the Affordable Care Act, a reality Democrats will make sure voters understand.
Making that case should not be difficult, although endorsements of Pearce such as the recent one by former Democratic Gov. Jerry Apodaca — he says the GOP representative can reach across the aisles — could muddy those efforts.
But Democrats have a lot with which to work. According to the Five-Thirty-Eight website, Pearce has voted with Trump 89.7 percent of the time; in contrast, Lujan Grisham’s Trump score is 25 percent. Considering Trump lost in New Mexico by 8 percentage points in 2016 — and, if anything, is less popular today — that should be a difficult association for Pearce to overcome.
As we all know, however, New Mexican voters can be ornery. They like who they like. Close polls are a reminder to take nothing for granted — a gift for both candidates, if you will, just before the campaign season gets rolling.