Poll: Dems gain clear advantage in midterms
Survey shows election could shape up to be referendum on Trump
Two months ahead of the midterm elections, Democrats hold a clear advantage over Republicans in congressional vote support, with antipathy toward President Donald Trump fueling Democratic enthusiasm, even among those in the party who stayed home four years ago, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds.
The survey also points to broad unrest and frustration with the political system. More than 6 in 10 Americans say Trump and the Republican Party are out of touch with most people in the country. While Democrats fare better, a narrower 51 percent majority also judged them out of touch. Registered voters say they favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their district by 52 percent to 38 percent.
Other highlights of the poll include:
Self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are slightly more likely than Republicans and Republican-leaning independents to say they are absolutely certain to vote, by 80 percent to 74 percent.
More than 8 in 10 voters who approve of Trump support Republicans, while more than 8 in 10 of Trump disapprovers support Democrats.
The 38 percent minority of voters who rate the economy as “not so good” or “poor” favor Democrats over Republicans at 70 percent to 20 percent, a 50-point margin. But Republicans hold only a 7-point advantage with the majority of voters who view the economy positively, 49 percent to 42 percent.
When asked whether they would rather have Democrats control Congress “as a check on Trump” or a Republicancontrolled Congress “to support Trump’s agenda,” 60 percent of voters say they prefer having Democrats in control.
The gender gap in views of Trump continues to be a key factor looking ahead to the fall campaign, with the Post-ABC poll finding 66 percent of female registered voters disapproving of Trump, including 59 percent who disapprove “strongly.” Among men, 52 percent disapprove, 45 percent strongly.
Vote preferences show a similar divide, with men basically split in support for Democratic or Republican House candidates, but women favoring Democrats by 58 percent to 33 percent, a 25-point margin.
The Post-ABC poll finds that 72 percent of adults think the Democrats would seek to impeach the president if they were in power in the House, including 79 percent of Republicans and 70 percent of Democrats.
The country is closely divided on the question of whether Congress should begin such proceedings — 49 percent are in favor and 46 percent opposed. The gap between the support for impeachment proceedings and the wider perception that Democrats would undertake them could be a liability for Democratic candidates in November.
The Post-ABC poll finds a 56 percent majority of adults overall think Trump is “too harsh” in dealing with illegal immigration, while about 3 in 10 think he’s handled it about right and 1 in 10 say he is “not tough enough.”
Both parties have sought to take advantage on the issue of immigration. Asked how Democrats would govern if they won control of Congress, 47 percent think they would handle illegal immigration about right, but 43 percent think they would not be tough enough and only 4 percent believe they would be too harsh.
The Post-ABC poll finds that 41 percent of the public supports the tariffs Trump placed on some goods imported to the United States, while 50 percent oppose them.
This Post-ABC poll was conducted Aug. 26-29 among a national random sample of 1,003 adults including 879 registered voters. The overall results have an error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.