Spoiler alert: GOP wants Johnson out
Poll shows former governor drawing more Republican support in Senate race
Republicans say Libertarian Gary Johnson is a spoiler in New Mexico’s race for U.S. Senate.
What is he spoiling?
It depends on whom you ask and when you ask them.
A couple weeks ago, Republican nominee Mick Rich said Johnson’s decision to jump into the contest would help his campaign to unseat freshman Democrat Martin Heinrich.
With his stances on issues such as legalizing marijuana, Johnson was bound to peel away some left-leaning
voters from Heinrich and leave Rich to consolidate support among conservatives, Rich reasoned.
But this week, state Republican Party Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi called on Johnson — a two-term governor of New Mexico when he was a Republican — to drop out, saying it would help the GOP’s push to unseat Heinrich.
Spoiler or not, here is a spoiler warning: Johnson is not dropping out.
Still, Cangiolosi’s message points to concerns that Johnson might pick up not only support from independent voters but from plenty of Republicans, too.
Cangiolosi pointed to a recent poll by the Albuquerque Journal that showed 47 percent of likely voters supporting Heinrich, 26 percent backing Rich and 16 percent behind Johnson. Johnson entered the race just over a month ago.
The poll also showed Johnson winning 18 percent of Republicans, 37 percent of independents and only 10 percent of Democrats.
In a one-on-one matchup between Heinrich and Rich, the Republican would be within points of the senator, Cangiolosi said.
“Gary Johnson has a long legacy of service to New Mexico, but our shared beliefs in smaller, more fiscally responsible government would be best served if he withdrew his candidacy for the United States Senate,” Cangiolosi said in a statement.
What has changed since Rich’s appraisal that Johnson’s entrance into the race was good news?
Rich said the Journal’s poll showed Johnson winning more support from Republicans than he anticipated.
An Albuquerque-based contractor, Rich said he sees a path to victory regardless of whether Johnson stays in the race.
But, he added: “I wasn’t happy it looked like Gary’s picking up Republicans.”
Rich questions why Johnson is in the race if there is no clear route to victory, suggesting the former governor is out to further his personal brand or the Libertarian Party rather than the state.
“If he cared about the people of New Mexico, he’d get out,” Rich said.
Johnson characterized the Republicans’ talk as hypocrisy.
He has tried to position himself as the candidate for independent voters — a growing section of the New Mexican electorate.
Johnson said the Journal’s numbers do not jibe with his own polling or the results of a survey published last month by Emerson College that placed him in second.
“I still hold the belief that I can win the race,” he said.
Johnson’s campaign plans to release television ads, a step only Heinrich has taken at this point.
Johnson is, after all, a newcomer to the race. He got in only after Libertarian nominee Aubrey Dunn dropped out. And some Republicans had even hoped Rich, a political novice, would bow out to give the more seasoned politician a chance at unseating Heinrich.
So, is Rich the real spoiler here?
Candidates can parse poll numbers all they like but, so far, analysts do not see too big a threat yet to Heinrich’s hold on his Senate seat.
Heinrich has been sticking to bread-and-butter Democratic Party issues, such as health care. Rich has taken a more conservative line, supporting restrictions on abortion and opposing gun control.
Johnson has called for cutting the size of government but is also socially liberal — or “socially cool” as one video from a supportive PAC put it — on issues such as drug policy and immigration.
The idea that Rich would suddenly be in striking distance of Heinrich if Johnson dropped out relies on the assumption that all Johnson supporters would line up behind the Republican. Given Johnson’s positions, that is not automatic.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the campaign-tracking blog Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said Wednesday that he might have considered Heinrich at greater risk of losing his seat if Rich had dropped out and left a one-onone matchup between Johnson and the senator.
But as it stands, Kondik’s website still rates the Senate seat as safe for Heinrich. After all, Democrats are expecting a boost this year, and an incumbent enjoys a certain advantage.
Meanwhile, Johnson is polling particularly well among voters between the ages of 18 and 34, but they are less likely to turn out and vote, said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research and Polling Inc., which conducted the Journal’s poll.
“I just don’t see [Heinrich] having that much of a problem,” Kondik said.