Forecast: Wetter winter and fall on the way
Coming El Niño system expected to bring more moisture to the area
You might want to sit down for this. Santa Fe and Northern New Mexico may be in for snow this fall and winter. Yup. Snow. A National Weather Service forecaster said the region has the potential to see a significant increase in the white stuff this season compared to last year, thanks in large part to the coming of an El Niño system that could seed more moisture in the area and replace the dreaded La Niña effect that created bone-dry conditions a year ago.
Santa Fe’s nearby mountains received approximately 60 inches of snow last winter, said Andrew Church, an Albuquerque-based meteorologist, referencing data reported by an automated system of snowpack sensors operated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
“Over the last 16 years, the average has been closer to 200 inches,” he said, adding the Santa Fe area only received about 2 inches in February and 4 inches in March 2018.
January was the worst month, Church said, with no snow reported by the sensors.
“That’s kind of the epitome of last winter,” said Church, calling the season “just dismal.”
According to data recorded at lower elevations, things were similarly dire.
A weather service reporting station northeast of Santa Fe Community College states that the area received about 6.4 inches of snow between November 2017 and April 2018 — nearly 20 inches lower than average for that area.
A second monitoring station located in Seton Village reported just 1.5 inches within that same time frame.
The reason for such a dry season was “a double-dip La Niña,” said Church, adding that La Niña conditions are when sea surface temperatures are cooler than average, by at least a half-degree. This, he said, results in very few regional storm systems. It “can be very dry not only for New Mexico but for the whole Southwest. … Last year was no exception.”
But as the seasons begin to change, even the smallest bit of good news is comforting to those who depend on snow in the winter. Ben Abruzzo, Ski Santa Fe’s area manager, who called the winter of 2017-18 “a challenging winter, to be sure,” a more optimistic forecast is welcomed.
“They’re forecasting a pretty solid El Niño year, which traditionally means we’ll have an above-average snowfall.” Ben Abruzzo, Ski Santa Fe’s area manager
“They’re forecasting a pretty solid El Niño year, which traditionally means we’ll have an above-average snowfall,” he said.
Meteorologist David Craft said the El Niño watch is underway, with a 50 to 55 percent chance it would kick in during fall months between September and November, and a 65 percent to 70 percent chance it would come in to effect sometime between December and February.
“The storm track will be more active over our area,” said Craft.
Although Craft said forecasters cannot be sure exactly how much snow and precipitation the area will actually get, he said an El Niño is almost certain, based on information from the climate prediction center’s desk, which tracks El Niño and La Niña conditions.
He added it’s possible Santa Fe will see lower temperatures and more cloud coverage this season, relative to last year. Those factors are critical to maintaining snowpack, which was thin at best throughout the winter and spring.
Church said that while prospects precipitation in the coming season are better, drier, warmer winters could be a new normal.
“We haven’t, as a state, had a below average [temperature] season since 1997-1998,” he said. “It’s just the overall trend of warming.” Craft agreed. “Historically, El Niño has been cooler and wetter over the Southwest. However, temperatures have been increasing, which is associated to climate change,” he said, adding that because of warming, it’s possible that precipitation at lower elevations could fall as rain instead of snow.
Although he said he believes temperatures will be lower than last year, they will still be higher than average. Typically, temperatures range between 31.5 to 35.8 degrees between December and February, according to information collected at the Santa Fe airport.
This year, the Weather Service forecasts a 33 percent chance of aboveaverage temperatures this winter, and a 50 percent chance this fall.
Either way, Abruzzo will scan the skies and the weather report in anticipation.
“Nowhere can I find that there have been two back-to-back poor seasons,” he said, “so overall I’m feeling pretty hopeful.”