NFL MATCHUPS

Last week’s record: 6-9 Overall record: 38-38-2 Chargers at Browns

11 a.m. on CBS

Baker Mayfield has been the most exciting quarterback the Browns (2-2-1) have had since Bernie Kosar, and the crazy thing is, he might not even be his team’s best rookie so far. Denzel Ward has been sensational at cornerback. He was named the AFC’s special teams player of the week for blocking a field-goal attempt in Cleveland’s overtime win last week. The Chargers (3-2) have gotten their wins against bad teams, and these Browns are not a bad team.

Pick: Browns +1

Rams at Broncos

2:05 p.m. on Fox

At some point, the Rams (5-0) have to come back to Earth. They have scored 33 or more points in all five games this season and are enjoying the same hype Philadelphia did in the early part of last season. Of course, the Eagles won the Super Bowl, so hype isn’t always misplaced. Even so, to not only win but to win by a touchdown or more is a hard thing to do week in and week out, and a road game in Denver’s altitude could slow the Rams down. The Broncos (2-3) are no match for Los Angeles in total talent. But they aren’t pushovers and they can make this game close, or even pull an upset, if the Rams overlook them.

Pick: Broncos +7

Jaguars at Cowboys

2:25 p.m. on CBS

The Jaguars (3-2) lost last week, but they can hold their heads high as they proved to the world that Patrick Mahomes is not perfect. They also proved that their own offense is extremely not perfect, but you don’t come to Jacksonville to watch the offense. If the Jaguars’ defense has a weakness, it is against the run, which makes the Cowboys (2-3) a difficult assignment on the road.

Pick: Cowboys +3

Chiefs at Patriots

6:20 p.m. on NBC

A lot was learned from last week’s victory by the Chiefs (5-0). First things first: Patrick Mahomes is not perfect. He’s sensational, exciting and many other adjectives, but he can commit turnovers just like anyone else, and sometimes he needs his defense to win a game for him. Shockingly, the much-maligned Kansas City defense obliged to secure a win over Jacksonville. The Patriots (3-2) have been acting like all is well because they beat Miami and Indianapolis, but they do not have a defense anywhere near as good as Jacksonville’s, and that could be a serious problem.

Pick: Chiefs +3.5

49ers at Packers

6:15 p.m. Monday on ESPN

Passing yards is a statistic that can never be viewed in a vacuum. A quarterback can just as easily lead his team to victory with a 300-yard game as he can have those yards come simply because his team was losing by a wide margin, which forced him to throw. With Aaron Rodgers of the Packers (2-2-1), much of his career has been the former, with his 53 career games of 300 or more yards resulting in a record of 36-17. C.J. Beathard of the 49ers (1-4) had an excellent example of the bad 300-yard game last week when he threw for 349. More than 200 of the yards came in the second half as he tried (and failed) to get his team back into the game. A much more telling statistic for Beathard was his four personal turnovers. A prime-time game at home after consecutive frustrating weeks seems like a tailor-made situation for a Rodgers explosion.

Pick: Packers -9.5

Steelers at Bengals

11 a.m.

It seems too early in the season for a game to have a do-or-die vibe, but the Steelers (2-2-1) have fallen into a hole in the standings, and the digging out needs to start now.

According to The Upshot’s Playoff Simulator, Pittsburgh has a 34 percent chance of making the postseason. That number drops to the low 20s with a loss to the Bengals (4-1) and would go to around 10 percent if it followed that loss with one to Cleveland in Week 7.

Cincinnati’s offense is good enough to make this game competitive, but if the Steelers stay focused, they have everything they need to win.

Pick: Steelers +2.5

Panthers at Redskins

11 a.m.

The Redskins (2-2) were shredded by Drew Brees on Monday night with their secondary having no chance of stopping the Saints’ wide receivers. For as good as the Panthers (3-1) have been, they do not pose that same threat downfield, and if they try to run and screen-pass their way to victory, Washington will beat them.

Pick: Redskins -1

Bears at Dolphins

11 a.m.

It’s easy to imagine fans of the Bears (3-1) sitting around during the team’s bye week discussing their trouncing of Tampa Bay in the previous week and wondering if it really happened. No one was surprised to see Chicago’s defense be so stout, but Mitchell Trubisky throwing six touchdown passes was not on anyone’s radar. The Dolphins (3-2), on the other hand, have had a bit of a reckoning over the past two weeks, with the shine of a fast start wearing off quickly. Trubisky will probably cool off considerably, but that should still lead to a win on the road.

Pick: Bears -3

Buccaneers at Falcons

11 a.m.

Remember the optimism of the first two games of the year for the Buccaneers (2-2)? Since then, the team has not only lost consecutive games, but it has been outscored, 78-37. The Falcons (1-4) had their optimism eliminated from the get-go. Their defense has been atrocious, and even with some positives to point to on offense, the season is just a massive disappointment. This division matchup will probably have a lot of passing yards and very little well-played football.

Pick: Falcons -3.5

Cardinals at Vikings

11 a.m.

The Vikings (2-2-1) have been a lot better than their record indicates, but their games, with the exception of a Week 1 blowout of San Francisco and a shocking Week 3 loss to Buffalo, have all been very close. Barring a catastrophic failure nearly on the level of the Bills’ loss, they should win comfortably against the Cardinals (1-4). But until their defense shows more consistency, they should not be getting double-digit point spreads.

Pick: Cardinals +10

Colts at Jets

11 a.m.

If the Jets (2-3) want to take care of business at home, Sam Darnold better be ready for a shootout. Andrew Luck of the (Colts 1-4) has attempted an outrageous 121 passes over the last two weeks, and while he lost both games, he generated a combined 58 points. The path to victory for the Jets is finding Robby Anderson more often, letting Isaiah Crowell run all over the Indianapolis defense and simply understanding that Luck will throw for a lot of yards.

Pick: Jets -2.5

Ravens at Titans

2:25 p.m.

The Ravens (3-2) have been phenomenal on defense. They are allowing the fewest points of any team, and it has kept Baltimore in every game. Joe Flacco and the offense have not been as impressive, but they have tried to mix things up with plays featuring Lamar Jackson; at some point, one of those will turn into a huge gain. The Titans (3-2) are a gritty team under coach Mike Vrabel and his defensive coordinator, Dean Pees, and have made several games get ugly fast. This game will probably be decided by just a few breakdowns in coverage, which would favor Baltimore.

Pick: Ravens -2.5

Bills at Texans

11 a.m.

The Bills (2-3) have won two of their last three games, with Josh Allen, their rookie quarterback, getting a lot of the credit even though the victories have largely been a result of the team’s defense forcing numerous turnovers. Deshaun Watson is heating up for the Texans (2-3) and has thrown for 375 or more yards in three consecutive games, but he’s also banged up and dealing with poor play from his offensive line. This matchup, against a team that brings constant pressure, has warning signs all over it, both for Houston’s ability to justify such a massive point spread and for Watson’s future health.

Pick: Bills +10.5

Seahawks at Raiders

11 a.m.

This game, at Wembley Stadium in London, will give an international audience the ability to see how dysfunctional the Raiders (1-4) have been under coach Jon Gruden. The Seahawks (2-3) are hardly worldbeaters, but playing one of their eight road games at a neutral site is advantageous to them.

Pick: Seahawks -3