Turnout is key for midterms
David Plouffe, campaign manager for Barack Obama’s successful 2008 presidential bid, coined one of my favorite political phrases when he warned that anxious Democrats tend toward “bed-wetting” as Election Day approaches. Once again, Democrats are experiencing their share of nocturnal unease: What once seemed to be a march to victory in the 2018 midterms suddenly looks rockier, and even favorable new polls are being dismissed with, “Oh, sure, but remember what happened in 2016.”
Yes, the unknowns about 2018 are … unknown. But there are five certainties that should ease Democratic nerves and restore shaken resolve.
First, the chaotic primary process has somehow produced a slate of diverse, high-quality Democratic candidates: people to vote for, not just surrogates for voters wanting to show opposition to the president. For the first time, the majority of a major party’s candidates for Congress are not white men: Almost half of Democratic nominees are female (180 in total, 50 percent higher than the previous record), and almost a third are people of color.
What’s more, they have impressive backgrounds: Democratic challengers include a former national teacher of the year, a combat pilot inducted into an aviation hall of fame, a former National Security Council staff director, a winner of the Distinguished Flying Cross with Valor — and these are just a few of the female first-time candidates. Democratic challengers in key races are considerably younger than GOP incumbents, and among these new faces, about three-fifths have pledged not to accept any corporate PAC money. Virtually none of their GOP opponents has done the same. The decision to eschew this money is not just being made by liberals such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; younger moderates such as Conor Lamb and Danny O’Connor are also refusing to do business as usual in Washington.
Second, women are fired up and ready to vote. Yes, Brett Kavanaugh’s testosterone-laden defense rallied Republican men. But post-Kavanaugh reports of a narrowing enthusiasm gap between the parties may have been oversold. Plus, the latest polls show an unprecedented 30 percentage point gender gap in 2018, with Democratic women considerably more likely to vote than Republican men. It’s a fundamental rule of politics that “angry people vote,” and Trump’s triumph in getting Kavanaugh confirmed might have exacerbated raw feelings among women.
Third, the Midwest is back in play. Republicans won all of the big four midterm Midwestern governorships in 2014 — Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois — by a gaping 1.35 million votes collectively. Many wondered: Had the Midwest become a GOP bastion? But this year, Democrats lead or are tied in all four races. Democrats are clearly poised to compete in 2020 in the heartland, and wins in several or all of these gubernatorial races this year will give them a strong hand in critical 2021 redistricting battles.
Fourth, the Democratic Party has largely healed, dodged or whistled past the lingering bitterness of its divisive 2016 presidential primary process. Sure, on any given day, Twitter is filled with “But Bernie this …” or “If only Hillary that …” Yet, primary voters seem to have ignored all of this and picked candidates who genuinely fit their districts and constituencies the best. Unlike the GOP’s 2010 tea party vs. establishment war, insurgent forces in the Democratic Party, like Indivisible and the “Pod Save America” team, worked closely with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to rally behind a slate of candidates and avoid a potential disaster in California’s June “jungle primary.” And, by and large, candidates defeated in primaries — left, right and center — have been quick to rally behind the winners.
Finally, victory in key races rests largely on a factor within Democrats’ control: turning out their voters. To win in most of the key races in 2018, Democrats do not need to meet impossible political benchmarks or persuade die-hard Trumpers to change sides. They need only do a reasonably good job of getting their voters to the polls.
This is illustrated by the results of the “live” polling project being conducted by the team at the Upshot. While the various “top line” results are conflicting, a look inside the data shows an interesting trend. For example, in Nevada’s razor-thin Senate race between incumbent Republican Dean Heller and Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen, the Upshot found that if the turnout in the race matches 2014’s turnout, Heller will win by seven points. But if Democrats can get 2016-like turnout, Rosen will win by four: an 11-point swing. Similar swings were found in tight House races such as Dana Rohrabacher’s reelection bid in California’s 48th Congressional District, Pete Sessions’ re-election race in Texas’ 32nd and the nail-biter in New Mexico’s 2nd.
Yes, the answer to the ultimate question — who will control the Senate, the House and key governorships — remains unknown. But Democrats have reason to “keep calm and midterm on” in the final weeks before this crucial reckoning.