Dem women could make big gains
Speaker says there’s slight chance of getting majority female House
The blue wave that some are predicting for the midterm election could actually be pink when it comes to New Mexico’s legislative races.
At least that’s what state Democrats are hoping. And looking at fundraising totals and recent voting trends, there is some evidence that some female Democratic challengers in Albuquerque have a decent shot at ousting male Republican incumbents in the state House of Representatives.
In at least three Albuquerque House districts held by Republican men, Democratic women candidates have raised more money.
“We have a good chance that we could end up with a majority female caucus,” said House Speaker Brian Egolf, D-Santa Fe. “And there’s an outside chance we could have a majority female House.”
Currently, 27 of 70 House seats are held by women. But the ratio is much closer in the House Democratic Caucus, which is made up of 21 men and 17 women.
All state House seats — but none in the state Senate — are up for election this year.
One factor working for the Democrats is
that, in at least seven House districts held by Republicans, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton got more votes than Republican Donald Trump. Egolf said this helped Democrats establish which GOP seats to target.
However, Ryan Gleason, executive director of the state Republican Party, said the 2016 Clinton/Trump vote probably isn’t the measure of how the 2018 vote will go in House races. Though Clinton got more votes than Trump did in most the battleground districts, Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson also was contending for support. Johnson was a two-term governor of New Mexico when he was a Republican.
“We think that about 65 percent of Johnson’s support was from Republicans,” Gleason said.
Here are the battleground districts as seen the party leaders:
DISTRICT 28 (ALBUQUERQUE)
Incumbent Republican Jimmie Hall was first elected to the House in 2004 and has been reelected with no trouble six times since, the last three times unopposed. He’s never been involved in any scandal or any major controversy and is a major player in the House Appropriations and Finance Committee. But now it seems he’s in the political fight of his life against an aggressive Democratic challenger in Melanie Stansbury, a 39-year-old political newcomer. She has more than $97,000 in her campaign account, nearly twice Hall’s total.
DISTRICT 29 (ALBUQUERQUE)
Two-term Republican incumbent David Adkins won re-election two years ago by only nine votes. This year, Adkins is facing Democrat Joy Garratt, a teacher who lost a close race with Republican state Sen. Sander Rue two years ago. Garratt has kept pace with Adkins in campaign fundraising. She had $31,545 cash on hand in her most recent report, compared with $34,111 reported by Adkins.
DISTRICT 30 (ALBUQUERQUE)
Democrat Natalie Figueroa ran a respectable race in losing to House Republican floor leader Nate Gentry in 2016. She received 48 percent, trailing Gentry by 574 votes. Gentry outperformed Trump, who lost this district to Clinton by 1,456 votes. But Gentry isn’t seeking re-election. Figueroa is running against Republican John Jones, husband of GOP Congressional candidate and former state legislator Janice Arnold-Jones. Figueroa has raised the most money, more than $94,000 compared with Jones’ $65,000.
DISTRICT 68 (ALBUQUERQUE)
Even the most optimistic Democrat never thought, until a few months ago, that Republican Rep. Monica Youngblood’s district would be in play. But that’s been the case since May, when Youngblood was arrested on a drunkendriving charge. Not only that, but a police video showed her asking for leniency because of her legislative record of supporting law enforcement. Youngblood recently was convicted of aggravated drunken driving and served a 24-hour sentence. Democratic challenger Karen Bash only made one mild statement about Youngblood’s conviction. However, a Democrat-friendly political action committee recently sent a devastating mailer showing Youngblood on the night of her arrest.
DISTRICT 15 (ALBUQUERQUE)
This is a swing district in which the Republican — twoterm Rep. Sarah Maestas Barnes — is not seeking re-election. Brad Winter, a longtime Albuquerque city councilor and former interim secretary of state, is the Republican candidate. His opponent is a political newcomer, lawyer Dayan “Day” Hochman-Vigil. Despite Winter’s greater name recognition, Hochman-Vigil has raised more than $85,000 compared with Winter’s $54,641. This is another GOP district that Clinton won, beating Trump by 1,367 votes in 2016. Maestas Barnes won in 2016 by 891 votes.
DISTRICT 20 (ALBUQUERQUE)
Rep. Jim Dines, a Republican and retired lawyer who was first elected in 2014, is facing a serious challenge from Democrat Abbas Akhil. Newcomer Akhil specializes in storage for renewable energy. Akhil has raised more than $60,000 compared with $37,420 for Dines. And Ahkil is one of a handful of Democratic House candidates endorsed by former President Barack Obama. Dines in 2016 received nearly 58 percent of the vote. In 2014 he got just under 55 percent.
DISTRICT 53 (DOÑA ANA, OTERO COUNTIES)
This is a rematch between two candidates from Chaparral. Republican Rep. Ricky Little is being challenged by Democrat Willie Madrid, a teacher and football coach. Little won by 138 votes in 2016. That was better than Trump, who lost the district to Clinton by 363 votes. Little is ahead of Madrid in fundraising — $54,000-plus to just over $48,000. But Egolf says a voter registration drive will help Madrid.
DISTRICT 4 (SAN JUAN COUNTY)
This one seems like more of a long shot, but Egolf insists that three-term incumbent Sharon Clahchischilliage, R-Kirtland, is vulnerable. Her competition is Democrat Anthony Allison, a retired electrician from Fruitland, who has been president of the Navajo Voters Coalition. Clinton beat Trump in this district, but only by five votes. Clahchischilliage won re-election in 2016 by 799 votes.
Competitive Democratic Districts: DISTRICT 63 (CURRY, DEBACA, GUADALUPE, ROOSEVELT. AND SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES)
This is the only seat held by a Democrat that Egolf says he’s worried about. Republican Gleason says he’s right to worry. Incumbent Rep. George Dodge of Santa Rosa is being challenged by Clo- vis farmer and rancher Martin Zamora. First elected in 2010, Dodge has more than $79,000 cash on hand compared to Zamora’s $45,000. But in this district, Trump beat Clinton by more than 1,000 votes.
DISTRICT 32 (GRANT, HIDALGO & LUNA COUNTIES)
This is another district represented by a Democrat where Trump won in 2016. First-term incumbent Candie Sweetser of Deming beat her Republican opponent by 230 votes that year. Her opponent this time is Republican Laura Boyd, a physician from Deming. Sweetser has the money edge, raising $46,000 compared with $24,000 for Boyd.
DISTRICT 43 (LOS ALAMOS, SANTA FE, RIO ARRIBA AND SANDOVAL COUNTIES)
This seat is now held by Rep. Stephanie Garcia Richard, D-Los Alamos, who is running for state
land commissioner instead of another legislative term. Christine Chandler, a Los Alamos County councilor, will try to hold the seat for Democrats. The Republican candidate is Lisa Shin, an optometrist in Los Alamos and vocal supporter of Trump. Chandler has raised nearly twice as much money as Shin.
DISTRICT 23 (ALBUQUERQUE)
Incumbent Damon Ely, a first-term Democrat, defeated incumbent Republican Rep. Paul Pacheco in 2016 by 105 votes in this swing district. This year he’s facing Republican Brenda Boatman, a pilot. Ely has raised more than $112,000 compared to Boatman’s nearly $46,000. In this district two years ago, Clinton beat Trump by 1,198 votes.
DISTRICT 24 (ALBUQUERQUE)
Incumbent Democratic Rep. Liz Thomson is being challenged by newcomer Trey Morris — a 29-year-old former Air Force officer — in what might be the most volatile of all the swing districts. Thomson and former Rep. Conrad James basically played tag with the district for years. James, elected in 2010, lost to Thomson in 2012 but came back to beat her in 2014. James didn’t run in 2016. Thomson beat the GOP candidate by 600 votes in 2016 — significantly less than Clinton’s 1,412 vote margin over Trump. Gleason pointed out that Democrats tend to win this seat in presidential election years and lose it in midterms.
DISTRICT 39 (DOÑA ANA, GRANT AND SIERRA COUNTIES)
This is another seat that Democrats and Republicans have traded held recent years. Rep. Rudy Martinez, D-Bayard, defeated then-incumbent John Zimmerman by 233 votes in 2016. Republican Zimmerman had taken the seat from Martinez in 2014. This time Republicans have nominated former state Sen. Lee Cotter of Las Cruces. Martinez has a big cash advantage, raising about $82,000 compared with Cotter’s $15,000.
SANTA FE AREA HOUSE RACES
In Santa Fe, Speaker Egolf and Reps. Jim Trujillo and Linda Trujillo are unopposed.
In District 46, Andrea Romero, who defeated incumbent Carl Trujillo in the Democratic primary, faces a write-in opponent, Heather Nordquist. Romero is leading in fundraising. According to her most recent campaign finance report, Romero has more than $16,000 cash on hand compared with $978 for Nordquist.
Two-term Rep. Matthew McQueen, D-Galisteo, is running against independent Jarratt Applewhite. The incumbent has a huge financial lead, with nearly $49,000 compared with Applewhite’s $3,277.