Poll shows how N.M. races are stacking up INSIDE

Quarter-million voters have already cast ballots with 1 week left in campaign

Anew poll shows Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham pulling away from Republican Steve Pearce with a 9-point lead in the race for governor as their heated campaign enters its final week.

The survey of 936 registered voters by Emerson College also shows Democratic U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich on Torres Small holding on to fundraising lead in Congressional race. his way to re-election as he maintains an 18-point advantage over his nearest competitor.

And the poll has the race for Southern New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District as a toss-up. Outside groups are pouring millions into the contest in the southern half of the state.

The poll’s results come as a quarter-million New Mexicans have already cast ballots and candidates make their final pitch, particularly to the vast majority of independents who have yet to vote.

Conducted via telephone and online from Oct. 24-26, the poll showed Lujan Grisham leading in the race for governor with support

from about 53 percent of those surveyed. Pearce polled at 44 percent, and more than 3 percent were undecided. The margin of error was 3.4 percent.

The numbers are similar to the results of a poll commissioned by the Lujan Grisham campaign and circulated last weekend.

The Pearce camp maintains the race is tighter.

“Anyone telling themselves this is a 9-point race is going to be in for a shock on election night,” said spokesman Kevin Sheridan.

The Pearce campaign noted outside groups are still pouring money into the race, a sign that national observers see a competitive election.

The Republican Governors Association began airing television ads in the state a few weeks ago. And that organization’s Democratic counterpart has been running ads for months. Other groups, such as Save the Children Action Network and labor unions, have been spending big, too.

But Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling, said Pearce does not seem to be getting enough support outside his congressional district in Southern New Mexico to overcome the sort of natural disadvantage that comes with running a campaign from outside the state’s biggest city. After all, it will be nearly impossible to win the race for governor without winning Albuquerque. And in the Albuquerque-based congressional district, Pearce is polling behind Lujan Grisham.

“It doesn’t look like he’s been able to shore up that vote to compete statewide,” Kimball said.

Albuquerque is effectively Lujan Grisham’s home turf. She has represented the city in Congress. And no one in recent memory has won the governorship without winning Albuquerque.

Add the fact that Pearce is campaigning in the shadow of an unpopular two-term Republican governor and a Republican president that 55 percent of survey respondents view negatively and a GOP campaign to keep the state’s top job was always likely to be uphill.

In the race for U.S. Senate, it appears Libertarian Gary Johnsonand Republican Mick Rich continue to split votes. Heinrich is polling at 48 percent. Rich is near 32 percent and Johnson at 16 percent.

Nearly 5 percent of voters are undecided in that race. But of those surveyed, most of the undecided voters appear to be leaning toward Heinrich.

Of course, this was before a debate Friday night that featured a boisterous Johnson and a more aggressive Heinrich than perhaps anyone has seen so far in this race. And since the last slew of polls, Rich has tacked to the right, seeking to consolidate support among Republicans who back President Donald Trump.

While Johnson has counted on winning over independents, the Emerson College poll suggests a slightly larger share are supporting Heinrich and another 16 percent of Republicans are backing the Libertarian dark horse.

Either way, a spokesman for Rich’s campaign said Emerson College’s methodology is flawed.

“On Election Day, we see a close race between Mick and Heinrich, both pulling in the 42 range, with Gary in the 16-18 range,” Nathan James said.

A spokesman for Johnson’s campaign said they had seen the results several private polls with varying numbers.

“I’m not sure any of the pollsters have gotten a handle on what is a highly unusual election,” Joe Hunter said.

Of the undecided voters, few seemed to be on the fence about Rich, suggesting there are few

opportunities for him to win new support.

If any race in New Mexico bears close watching nationally, it’s probably in the southern part of the state where the contest to succeed Pearce in Congress appears to be neck and neck.

Republican Yvette Herrell and Democrat Xochitl Torres Small are both around 47 percent. Polling by Siena College and the New York Times also suggested the race is a dead heat.

The flurry of television ads in the district suggests Democrats see a real opportunity to win the seat.

Democrats last won the 2nd Congressional District in 2008, when Barack Obama was on the top of the ticket and drove high voter turnout in an historic election.

Pearce ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2008, then took back the House seat from a Democrat in 2010. He has held it since.

But without him on the ballot, it remains to be seen whether Republican can rely on keeping the district in their column. Though it includes New Mexico’s most conservative communities, it is also a diverse border district that includes the decidedly more Democratic city of Las Cruces.

If Democrats can win in Southern New Mexico, Kimball said, it may signal a year of big gains for Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

“That’s a real bellwether,” he said.

The 1st and 3rd congressional districts look safe for Democrats.

Early voting continues through Saturday. Election Day is Nov. 6.