Unpredictable outcome to hard-fought campaign

Seldom has it been more true that the only poll that counts is the one that takes place on Election Day. That’s because this year, pundits, prognosticators and other electoral predictors are particularly confused. Is the Blue Wave going to surge or slump? Can Democrats at least take back the House of Representatives? Is there a chance for Democrats to take the Senate, or will the GOP maintain control?

The confusion is not because polls can’t be trusted. They’re accurate, if the right people are being asked how they will vote, that is. Pre-election polls measure who pollsters think might turn up Election Day — that is, the likely electorate. Trouble is, now more than ever, pollsters do not know who is going to show up and vote. Ask the wrong people before the election, and your poll will miss its mark.

In New Mexico this election season, a number of interesting things are happening — and what they mean to the final results won’t be understood until after all the votes are counted. So far, more New Mexicans have participated in early voting than in 2014, the last midterm election. Some 25 percent of all registered voters, in fact, had voted early by midweek last week with a few days left to cast a ballot.

Most of those voters — no surprise — are over the age of 50, about 78 percent. Yet those elusive young voters also are turning out in greater numbers than in past elections.

Andrew Oxford reported last week that data from TargetSmart, which tracks voting nationwide, found that three times as many New Mexico voters ages 18 to 29 and 30 to 39 had voted this year than over the same time from 2014.

Some of these are new voters or irregular voters — people who might normally miss midterms, for example. That means their views likely aren’t reflected in the polls being passed around; to be a likely voter, pollsters often choose only those people who have voted in the last couple of elections. What will these voters do? We don’t know.

For New Mexico, with close races expected for the state land commissioner and the 2nd Congressional District in the southern part of the state, the presence of these new or infrequent voters muddies the waters. There’s little way of predicting what might happen. Their opinions are not reflected in polling. They are not likely voters, after all. Even with weighting results, it’s easy to be off — in races where the margins are wider, that won’t matter. But in a race that’s a dead heat, every vote is crucial.

Simply put, if you did not vote early, this is the year to show up on Election Day. A few votes could decide some of these races, whether for Congress, statewide office or in close-fought legislative districts.

Nationally, the uncertainty is even more pronounced.

Perhaps the most fascinating contest in the country is the U.S. Senate race between incumbent GOP Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic U.S. Rep Beto O’Rourke. Texas is a red, red state — not quite Oklahoma, but close. It’s almost unthinkable that Cruz might lose, yet O’Rourke, with his endless touring of all 254 Texas counties, smart social media and nonstop rallies, is holding his own.

Polls show a statistical tie or Cruz leading, though, and most experts expect the Republican to prevail. Again, those polls are of a likely electorate — which might not be the one revealed when all the ballots are counted. Five times as many young voters have turned out in Texas so far, meaning that polls there likely don’t reflect who is voting this time around. Of course, as the Texas Tribune reports about Texas voting — Republicans often win by a million votes or more in statewide races; that’s a hard margin to make up.

Peter Hamby, writing in Vanity Fair, reminds everyone that, “Polls remain our best tool for reading the electorate and discerning important trends, which is why journalists, handicappers, and campaign managers depend on them so much. Entire media companies are devoted to explaining them. But polls are not predictive. They are wobbly around the margins.”

He points out that in the era of Trump, polls have consistently underestimated Democratic performance: “Pollsters who aren’t accounting for the shifting electorate — a wave of new voters who haven’t been previously reached — could be making a risky mistake.” Or not.

The bottom line this year — we don’t know what to expect and that’s all the more reason to show up. Your voice counts, but only if you make it heard. Polls will be open from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. Tuesday, with voting taking place at convenience centers throughout Santa Fe County. (Find the list at www.santafe countynm.gov/clerk; just click on 2018 General Election Voting Convenience Centers.)

New Mexico voters will be choosing a U.S. senator, three members of the U.S. House of Representatives, a governor and a host of other officials — everything from state Supreme Court justice down to county sheriff. All state House legislative seats are on the ballot, as well as bond questions, two constitutional amendments and other important measures.

The campaign is almost over. Let’s get ready to vote.