WHO WILL IT BE?
Analysis five pressing questions loom over Tuesday’s election
Michelle Lujan Grisham and Steve Pearce are two days from elation or rejection.
The state’s first open gubernatorial contest in eight years promises a drastic shift at the Capitol after the tenure of Republican Gov. Susana Martinez, whose terms were marked by gridlock with Democratic legislators.
The question for many voters is which of the two is best suited to set the tone for a state with a high crime rate, abysmal rankings in education and one of the nation’s most robust endowments.
Will it be the Democrat, Lujan Grisham, the congresswoman from Albuquerque who has consolidated the support of the state’s majority party? Or will voters elect another Republican in Pearce, the congressman from Hobbs with a far-right track record but a middle-of-the-road campaign pitch?
As was the case when Martinez swept into office in the Republican wave of 2010, aided by the state’s fatigue after two terms under a governor of the opposite party, it is impossible to consider the 2018 gubernatorial clash outside the prevailing political context. And that could be bad news for Pearce.
His camp says he can defy the polls and pull off an upset. And with only hours to go, his stand is one of the five pressing questions looming over Tuesday’s election.
1. Is Pearce beaten?
The best chance for Pearce, according to the various forecasting schemes of the political tracker Five Thirty Eight, is 1 in 8. That’s based on a model that takes only polls into account.
Pearce, 71, has rejected the premise that the margin is as wide as those polls have shown. But the political headwinds, he has acknowledged, have never favored a Republican candidate.
The conservative congressman has run the centrist campaign a Republican has to run in 2018 New Mexico. A deep-pocketed outside group, the Republican Governors Association, leapt into the race on Pearce’s behalf in the late stages, signaling there is some faith that he is close enough for more ads to nibble into the difference.
But in a year where dissatisfaction with Martinez and President Donald Trump was always likely to motivate voters, the race has been, from the start, the Democratic candidate’s to lose. Indicators like fundraising and polling suggest Lujan Grisham hasn’t lost it.
2. What is Pearce’s path to victory?
New Mexico’s last nine gubernatorial contests have been won by the candidate who won Bernalillo County, the state’s most populous. The last exception was 1978.
“In those days, Bernalillo County was less blue and a smaller proportion of the total votes cast in the state,” said pollster Brian Sanderoff of Albuquerque.
Now the state’s largest county is practically a must-have. In the 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial elections, the winner’s margin in Bernalillo County — where roughly a third of the statewide votes were tallied — was almost identical to the statewide margin.
Albuquerque is Lujan Grisham’s home turf, where she has served three terms as a congresswoman and where polls have shown her maintaining a sizable lead, 12 points in a recent Emerson College survey.
If Pearce is to win, he will have to stay close in Bernalillo County while running up the score in the sparsely populated and more conservative southern counties he has represented in Congress.
During the last week, Pearce spent several days touring his largely rural district, making stops in Eunice, Melrose, Tatum and other towns.
“What he’s doing as far as making sure everybody doesn’t get lethargic in the last week here, that’s good,” said Caleb Grant, chairman of the Chaves County Republican Party.
But with registered Democrats turning out at a greater clip than Republicans in the early voting period, the congressman will need every independent voter he can find in the state’s largest city.
3. Is Lujan Grisham that strong?
Lujan Grisham, 59, has run a consistent race. She locked up endorsements and established herself as the front-runner for the nomination before a Democratic primary field materialized around her.
The two rivals who emerged in that nominating contest tried to argue that she had skeletons in her closet. Her blowout victory in the June primary left no doubt about who Democratic voters felt would lead them back to the Governor’s Office.
Lujan Grisham’s momentum has not slowed. Her operation has been a fundraising juggernaut — with $9.3 million as of last week, almost double Pearce’s haul — and the attacks she has faced have not moved the congresswoman off her message.
From the start, she has hammered at popular bipartisan issues such as greater investment in education, presented herself as a sober-minded and experienced politician who’s well-suited to lead an economic turnaround, and thrown progressives a bone or two. See: Legalized recreational marijuana (which she has said she will sign into law if presented with a responsible approach). Pearce vigorously opposes the idea.
4. Was there ever a chance for a N.M. Republican in ’18
A bluer New Mexico is reflected in the Republican Party’s weak slate of statewide candidates.
Polls show U.S. Senate hopeful Mick Rich is competing for second place with a Libertarian, former Gov. Gary Johnson. The Republican primary winner in the secretary of state’s race dropped out amid mounting lawsuits accusing her of legal malpractice. The GOP’s replacement was the thirdplace finisher in the southern congressional primary.
In addition, midterm elections traditionally favor the party out of power in the White House, and the Trump era has been no exception. Special congressional elections across the country since 2016 have produced exceptional Democratic turnout.
Lujan Grisham’s fundraising advantage underscores the enthusiasm gap. Pearce has run every which way but right, seeking to swim upstream by presenting himself as an experienced manager who can set aside partisanship. Whether voters will again elect a Republican governor and a Democratic state House of Representatives remains to be seen.
“The way I would put it is: New Mexicans don’t want one party controlling the state,” New Mexico Republican Party Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi said recently.
5. How will two Dems running for Congress factor in?
In the state’s southern congressional district, Democrat Xochitl Torres Small is bidding to turn a conservative-leaning swath of the borderlands blue for only the second time this century.
In the Albuquerque-area congressional district, former state Democratic Party chairwoman Deb Haaland is poised to become the first Native American woman elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Both women have drawn truckloads of money and national attention. To the degree their candidacies enliven the Democratic base, Democrats up and down the ballot could see a boost. Torres Small’s role is particularly intriguing as her competitive run could blunt Pearce’s advantage in his own congressional district.
Republicans recognize the district’s importance. Vice President Mike Pence in late October traveled to Roswell for a rally for Yvette Herrell, Torres Small’s opponent.
Democrats feel like they’re on the upswing.
“We have people flocking to Southern New Mexico, people coming all the way from Washington, D.C., to Washington state,” said Christopher Schaljo, chairman of the Doña Ana Democratic Party. “They’re coming down here to help walk for Xoch. And it doesn’t just help Xoch. We’re not just saying, ‘Hey, vote for Xoch.’ We’re saying, ‘Don’t forget we have Michelle running for governor.’ ”