NFL MATCHUPS

Last week’s record: 7-6-1 Overall record: 82-61-4

Cowboys at Falcons

11 a.m. on Fox Thanks to the division they play in, the Cowboys (4-5) have a better shot at the playoffs than the Falcons (4-5), and can improve their chances to 36 percent (according to The Upshot’s playoff simulator) with a win this week. Last week’s win over the Eagles helped erase the memories of two straight defeats for the Cowboys, and Atlanta, fresh off a loss to Cleveland, does not have a defense that can adequately protect it at home. Pick: Cowboys +3.5

Steelers at Jaguars

11 a.m. The Jaguars (3-6) are reeling. They have lost five consecutive games and look like a shadow of last year’s team on both sides of the ball. The personnel are still there, for the most part, but what worked last season just hasn’t this year. Now they have to host the Steelers (6-2-1), one of the hottest teams in the NFL, with the result either giving them a modicum of hope for this year’s prospects or crushing their spirit entirely. Pick: Jaguars +5.5

Titans at Colts 11 a.m.

The Titans (5-4) are a team no one wants to play. They are ranked 28th in the NFL in scoring offense but they have a winning record thanks to a defense that suffocates its opponents and an offense that slows things down and chews up the clock. Sure, they took a brief foray into more typical dominance last week, crushing the Patriots, 34-10, but their average game score, 18.7-16.8, means fewer total points have been scored in their games this season (319) than the Saints, the Rams and the Chiefs have each scored themselves. Pick: Titans +2.5

Bengals at Ravens

11 a.m. It is not as if the Bengals (5-4) had a defense worth mentioning at any point this season, but the last three weeks have been particularly ugly, with Cincinnati allowing a whopping 130 points. Sure, two of those games were against New Orleans and Kansas City, but to really drive home how high that number is, the Ravens (4-5) have allowed only 160 points all season. Joe Flacco had not practiced through Wednesday, which could lead to a start by the rookie Lamar Jackson (or, potentially, Robert Griffin III). Pick: Ravens (off)

Buccaneers at Giants

11 a.m. Monday night’s game was thoroughly confusing for those trying to figure out what direction the Giants (2-7) are headed. They were well on their way to yet another lifeless defeat, keeping pace with the Raiders for the top pick in next year’s draft, when suddenly Eli Manning remembered how to be aggressive, and the Giants toppled the 49ers. A home game against the Buccaneers (3-6), a team that cannot play defense and is prone to turnovers on offense, is a decent opportunity for a winning streak. Pick: Giants -1.5

Texans at Redskins 11 a.m.

Alex Smith’s career truly has been remarkable. The No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft, he was widely considered to be a complete bust after six seasons in the NFL, but coach Jim Harbaugh showed up in San Francisco and Smith suddenly found the talent that had made him the top pick in the first place. Since that turnaround in 2011, Smith’s record as a starter is 75-34-1. In his first year for the Redskins (6-3), it has simply been more of the same. Pick: Redskins +3

Panthers at Lions

11 a.m. The destruction of the Panthers (6-3) at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers was on Thursday last week, so Carolina has had extra time to stew in its embarrassment. The offense got three touchdowns from Christian McCaffrey, who looked virtually unstoppable on runs and screen passes, but Carolina’s defense was atrocious. If Pittsburgh had not pulled its starters in the 52-21 win, the NFL would easily have had its first 60-point game since 2011. The Lions (3-6) are not the Steelers. Pick: Panthers -4

Broncos at Chargers

2:05 p.m. on CBS The other team in Los Angeles is riding a six-game winning streak and just one loss behind the top teams in the NFL, but the Chargers (7-2) are rarely mentioned with the same breathless enthusiasm as the Rams and the Chiefs. Of course, the Chargers’ two losses have been at the hands of, you guessed it, the Rams and the Chiefs. Fundamentally, the Chargers are a solid, but unspectacular, team. They play tremendous defense (they have allowed 19 or fewer points in five consecutive games), and their offense, while not explosive, has yet to be held to fewer than 20 points. Pick: Broncos +7

Raiders at Cardinals 2:05 p.m.

There are two games this week that are entirely irrelevant as far as the playoff picture is concerned: The Chiefs-Rams matchup, in which both teams are essentially assured a spot no matter what happens, and this one, in which the Raiders (1-8) and the Cardinals (2-7) have both been given a zero percent chance of qualifying for postseason play by The Upshot regardless of this week’s result. Pick: Cardinals -5.5

Eagles at Saints

2:25 p.m. on Fox The NFL is no place for sentimentality, and while the Eagles (4-5) had a dream season last year, they are currently just a so-so team. They still have the brilliant coaching staff (minus Frank Reich, last year’s offensive coordinator) and they still have the talented roster, but it is just not working as well. Going on the road to face the Saints (8-1), who just might have the best squad in the NFL, does not seem like a realistic time to turn things around. The point spread (8) might seem outrageous, but New Orleans has had an average margin of victory of 13.3 points in its eight victories, so another blowout would be par for the course. Pick: Saints -8

Vikings at Bears

6:20 p.m. on NBC Mike Zimmer may be the coach of the Vikings (5-3-1), but he invoked the name of a Minnesota great to describe the quarterback of the team he is facing this week. “He gets the ball out with accuracy,” Zimmer said of Chicago’s Mitch Trubisky. “There’s other times he looks like Fran Tarkenton scrambling. Some of the runs he’s made are unbelievable.” Whichever team wins this game will be in the driver’s seat in the NFC North, and with the Bears hosting what should be a cold night game in Chicago, they have the advantage. Pick: Bears -2.5