Trump claims NAFTA victory, but deal faces long odds in U.S.

President Donald Trump declared victory Friday at a ceremonial signing of the new North American Free Trade Agreement in Buenos Aires, Argentina, predicting that gaining congressional approval needed to enact the pact with Mexico and Canada would not be “very much of a problem.”

In reality, it is a problem. The trade pact’s political fate — already uncertain given Democrats will soon control the House — has only dimmed since General Motors said this week that it planned to idle five factories in North America and cut nearly 15,000 jobs to trim costs.

Congressional Democrats remain open to supporting a revised trade deal. But they — along with business leaders and free-trade Republicans — have become increasingly pessimistic that the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement can win enough votes in the House without significant concessions from Mexico, like mandatory wage increases, to stem the loss of U.S. automobile and other factory jobs.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., who is in line to lead the House next year, described it Friday as a “work in progress” and cautioned that the current draft did not go far enough. “What isn’t in it yet is enough enforcement reassurances regarding workers, provisions that relate to workers and to the environment.”

Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., the minority leader, said that without changes, Trump “will have real trouble getting Democrats to support the deal.”

At least one major labor union, the 600,000-member International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, came out against the new agreement Friday, a move that could encourage other labor leaders to ratchet up criticism of a deal most view as, at best, a modest improvement on the 25-year-old NAFTA.