‘A gut punch in Iowa’
Biden’s fourth-place finish challenges claim he is most electable Dem
DES MOINES, Iowa
Maybe it was the threat of bad weather. Maybe it was a seating assignment debacle. Maybe it was a struggling campaign organization that still had not found its footing.
But as Joe Biden spoke at a major Iowa Democratic Party dinner in November, one thing was clear: His support appeared tepid compared with the vocal cheering sections of top rivals. The reception angered Biden and his top aides — and it left little doubt about his standing, three months before the nominating process in the Democratic presidential race would begin: The former vice president was in deep trouble in Iowa.
Two days after the dinner, Biden ripped into his campaign chairman, Steve Ricchetti, according to a person familiar with the conversation. And at the Biden headquarters in Philadelphia, senior officials sternly told staff members they needed to step up their performance.
The dinner’s damaging optics marked the beginning of a flurry of changes: Trusted aides were deployed to Iowa sooner than anticipated. Biden rescheduled time with donors to make space for a bus tour in Iowa. Former Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa and his wife, Christie, major players in Iowa Democratic politics, announced their Biden endorsements.
It was too late.
Biden’s performance in the Iowa caucuses on Monday dealt a damaging blow to the former vice president; with 71 percent of the results counted Wednesday morning, he trailed Pete Buttigieg and Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, with Sen. Amy Klobuchar not far behind.
“I am not going to sugarcoat it,” Biden said Wednesday as he campaigned in New Hampshire. “We took a gut punch in Iowa.”
Certainly over the past year, Biden has proved far more resilient than many expected. He has led national polls for months despite verbal gaffes, scrutiny of his long and sometimes controversial record in Washington, and a relentless assault from Republicans over his son’s dealings in Ukraine. The slow drip of vote totals in Iowa — and a swirl of other major news events — may blunt the attention on Biden’s challenges. And Iowa is an overwhelmingly white state, while Biden’s biggest political strength is with black voters, whom he is counting on for support in later-voting, more diverse states.
But he now faces jittery donors, an uncertain landscape in upcoming Democratic contests and a sharp challenge to the central argument of his campaign message: that he is the party’s strongest candidate to win a general election.
Interviews with more than a dozen advisers, allies and Iowa strategists show Biden was late in focusing on Iowa, put together an organization there that fell well short of his top rivals’ and that his core pitch about electability and experience was not enough to persuade voters who wanted a fresh face or more boldly progressive ideas.
Biden was also a less-than-inspiring presence on the trail, according to some voters, struggling at times in the homestretch to deliver crisp, energetic, on-message performances. When Biden announced his candidacy on April 25, some of his chief rivals had already been running for months. His late start had long-lasting consequences, according to some of his supporters.
“He could have been here sooner and more aggressively,” said Vilsack, who became Biden’s top surrogate in the state. “Because this is all about relationships.”
“It was frustrating that they weren’t seeming to reach more people,” added Susan Judkins, a member of the Clive City Council. “Some of the other campaigns had been getting momentum. They had hired staffers who are known to Iowans, who had an ability to influence.”
After Thanksgiving, the Bidens embarked on a bus trip across rural parts of the state where the campaign saw chances to accrue delegates.
The trip revealed strategic openings for the campaign, officials said, such as an opportunity with Latino voters in Storm Lake, Iowa, or a reminder to accentuate Biden’s advantage with Catholics in Dubuque.
The problem: Those lessons were arriving with just weeks to capitalize on them. Other candidates had already spent many months trying to win over the state’s Democratic caucusgoers.
“Had he done the ‘No Malarkey’ tour in the summertime, you may never have seen that Elizabeth Warren bounce,” said Rep. Ami Bera, D-Calif., who supports Biden.
Even some of Biden’s high-profile supporters were perplexed by the campaign’s choices
Sue Dvorsky, a former Iowa Democratic Party chairwoman, had backed Sen. Kamala Harris of California. After Harris dropped out, Dvorsky said she was inclined to support Biden, whom she and her husband had met when he ran for president in 1987.
But Dvorsky was appalled at the state of Biden’s organization, which was lacking precinct captains even in her own heavily Democratic community. Last week she endorsed Warren.
“This has been a sloppy effort that was always aimed at a general election,” she said of Biden’s organization, deeming it worse than his first two Iowa campaigns.
On the Saturday before the caucuses, Judkins had an uneasy feeling about the decision her state was about to make. She had spent the day knocking on doors with a host of prominent Biden supporters from across the country. She came away impressed by what her colleagues had told her — that Biden had more support and organizational strength in later-voting states. She wished they had come to Iowa sooner.
“I said to my husband, ‘I feel like all of these people from around the country are coming in to try to save us from ourselves,’ ” she said when they went out that evening. “Here we are, going out dancing. Kind of like the Titanic, the ship going down.”