Climate change is shrinking winter snow in South

During the 1970s, Nashville, Tenn., averaged just under a foot of snowfall each winter. Nowadays, Music City is lucky to see half that in a season.

The same is true in Knoxville, Tenn.; El Paso; and Albuquerque: All have seen their typical winter time snowfalls slashed by half in the past 50 years. And they’re not alone. A broad swath of the United States is seeing changing snowfall patterns, many of which are commensurate with those expected as a result of climate change.

In much of the South, the Plains and the interior Mid-Atlantic, seasonal snow totals are dwindling. That’s according to

Climate Central, a nonprofit specializing in climate change research and communication. A report released Wednesday reveals where snow hopes are beginning to melt away, while a select few locations may actually be seeing more snow thanks to climate change.

Snowfall was seen to be decreasing especially rapidly in the South, an area that largely picks up snow in marginal environments, so any subtle warming can tip the scales and favor temperatures above freezing. That can cut back on snowfall.

This was also prevalent in parts of the Rockies and interior Appalachians, as well as the central and southern Plains in between. Springfield, Mo.;

Evansville, Ind.; and Lubbock, Texas, all saw a greater than 40 percent decline in annual snowfall between in the 2010s compared with the 1970s. Even State College, Pa., saw about 20 inches per year less during the 2010s.

Perhaps the most telling aspect of the report wasn’t necessarily where but when snowfall is decreasing.

“In the shoulder seasons, when we look at the nationwide average, in the fall and the spring, we’re starting to see a tendency for the amount of snow to decrease,” Climate Central meteorologist Sean Sublette said.

That’s because the “shoulder seasons” on either side of winter — spring and fall — are warmer than winter. By nature of being transitional seasons, their snowfall events typically occur at warmer temperatures closer to the freezing mark. Any climate warming would nudge spring and fall snow events above freezing first, before affecting any trends in the wintertime.

In the South, 13 out of 14 cities saw a decrease in fall snowfall, while 71 percent experienced a drop in spring snowfall. Each of the five stations in the Southwest recorded a drop in fall and spring snowfall. And in central regions, three-quarters of stations witnessed a decline in fall and spring snowfall.

And in the Northeast, 71 percent saw a decline in the fall, but less than half did in springtime.

In the dead of winter, Sublette says the trends “are much more piecemeal.”

In a few spots, snowfall is actually increasing — particularly in the wintertime. According to the report, this occurred in some Northeast cities as well as several communities in the Upper Midwest.

Why?

For every degree Fahrenheit the air temperature increases, the atmosphere can hold 4 percent more water. That means that, as long as temperatures stay below freezing, an increase in temperature could lead to a juicier storm and actually produce more snow.