Battle for control of Senate takes shape
WASHINGTON — The 2020 battle for control of the Senate begins in earnest Tuesday, with both parties increasingly seeing the chamber as a must-win prize to guard against uncertainty over who will wind up in the White House.
Republicans, seeing little chance of reclaiming the House and facing prospective Senate losses, are working to hold their majority to maintain their alliance with President Donald Trump should he win reelection or serve as a firewall against a Democrat in the Oval Office. Democrats, who detect some opportunities against Republican incumbents struggling with home-state voters, regard control of the Senate as their only hope of reining in Trump if he wins, and a crucial perch to support a new presidential ally should Trump fall short.
“I always thought that as we got closer to the election, more and more people would focus on the Senate, and that is what is happening,” Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, said in an interview.
With the vice president empowered to cast tie-breaking votes in the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take the majority if the party captures the White House; four if not. Republicans can afford to lose up to three seats and hold their majority as long as Trump is reelected.
Both sides acknowledge the majority is up for grabs in a chamber paralyzed by dysfunction and partisanship, whose reputation for independence and reasoned debate has been tarnished. A photo finish is not out of the question.
“The Senate majority is in play,” said Nathan Gonzales, a nonpartisan handicapper and editor of Inside Elections. “The races are close enough that a 50-50 Senate is a real possibility.”
Voters in Alabama, North Carolina and Texas will make the first crucial Senate candidate selections on Super Tuesday. The environment is volatile, unsettled by the bitter Democratic presidential primary, the potential fallout from the failed effort to remove Trump from office, and now the rising threat of the coronavirus and its economic and health implications. Some Democrats in Congress have begun to sound the alarm about potential down-ballot damage if Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., a democratic socialist, is the party’s presidential nominee.
But Republicans have news for Democratic contenders for the Senate: They will be branded socialists whether Sanders is at the top of the ticket or not.
“Bernie will be on the ballot regardless, because every Democrat has gone there, and we will spend whatever it takes to make sure voters knows it,” said Kevin McLaughlin, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, referring to expansive social programs embraced by Democratic presidential candidates during the raucous primary campaign.
The strategy is already apparent. In Arizona, Sen. Martha McSally, a Republican who has trailed in polls against her Democratic challenger Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, hit Kelly as “too liberal” for the state in a recent ad entitled “Bernie Bro.” In Georgia, Sen. Kelly Loe±er, a newly appointed Republican who will be on the ballot in November, declared in an ad that “socialism risks everything that makes us great.”
Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the Senate majority leader, underscored the coming approach in his own comments last week. “If you look at what the various candidates for president on the Democratic ticket are saying, there’s not a whole lot of difference between any of them,” he told reporters. “They all look pretty much the same to me, and pretty much the same is very, very far to the left.”
The first test for Democrats and how well they have gauged the field will be Tuesday, when all eyes are on the presidential race but voters will make pivotal decisions that will shape the race for control of Congress. In North Carolina, where Democrats hope to defeat Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican who polls show is strikingly unpopular, Senate Democrats are supporting Cal Cunningham, a military veteran and former state lawmaker, over the state Sen. Erica D. Smith. Smith received unusual advertising support during the primary from a group with ties to McConnell in a Republican effort to help pick Tillis’ opponent.
A loss by Cunningham would be a setback for national Democrats who see him as the strongest challenger to Tillis. In another Tuesday primary, Senate Democrats have endorsed M.J. Hegar, a former Air Force helicopter pilot who is running in a crowded field in Texas to take on the Republican Sen. John Cornyn.
Republicans have a high-profile primary of their own Tuesday in Alabama, where the incumbent Doug Jones is the most endangered Senate Democrat to face reelection this year.