Fire forecast: Dry, windy weather will leave N.M. vulnerable
Farewell to rain — hot, dry weather and high winds to create combustible conditions
Santa Feans who enjoyed last weekend’s burst of thunderstorms and rain may not see the likes of it for a while. In fact, dry, hot weather with winds whipping about in the 15-20 mph range are forecast to leave Northern New Mexico vulnerable to fire this week. A red flag warning — the highest the National Weather Service issues for fire danger — will be issued Wednesday.
“The fire season in New Mexico will be ramped up considerably over the next few days or so — and even longer,” said forecaster Clay Anderson of the National Weather Service in Albuquerque.
Anderson said a combination of warm temperatures, very low humidities and growing winds may join together to produce a combustible mix, and it’s likely to remain that way for up to two weeks.
Anderson said New Mexicans should prepare to contend with smoke wafting in from two large fires in Arizona — one north of Phoenix and one in the Kaibab National Forest.
“Smoke will have the bigger impact in terms of fire weather for most people in New Mexico over the next one to two weeks,” he said.
Santa Fe National Forest personnel are monitoring potential wildfire activity in anticipation of a dry spell, said spokeswoman Julie Anne Overton.
She said recent weather patterns have brought “a few lightning starts on the forest over the last few days along with the moisture. Our fire personnel took care of them timely so, so far, so good. We’ll see what the next couple of weeks bring before we enter the ‘official’ monsoon season.”
Anderson said this year’s rainy season, which usually envelops much of Northern New Mexico from midJune into early September, may not bring as much moisture this summer. That’s because weather conditions have changed over the past few years, Anderson said.
Monsoons are generally defined
by a weather pattern that includes a shift in the wind direction, from westerly to easterly, and a high-pressure system that draws out moisture.
Those monsoon storms hit Santa Fe as a result of a high-pressure system located east of the state. But over the past few years that pressure system has been concentrated between Nevada and the Four Corners area.
“The closer that high-pressure system is to
New Mexico, the less precipitation we get,” Anderson said, adding there’s little chance of more precipitation in the area in the next two weeks.
Still, based on an analysis of last year’s data and climate conditions, he said meteorologists think New Mexico will see “near to slightly below normal” monsoon conditions for July and August.
For the time being, fire warnings are in place. Those with permission to burn in their area must cover burn barrels with a metal cover; motorists should refrain from throwing cigarettes or matches out of moving vehicles; and those who start outdoor fires of any kind need to douse them with water and
stir them until they are cold to the touch.
Unattended or abandoned campfires can spark a conflagration.
Overton said there has been less evidence of forest visitors leaving campfires abandoned or unattended. Over the past week, rangers have found just one abandoned campfire on forest land.
But since forest officials just reopened developed campgrounds, she said they are expecting a lot of visitors for the upcoming Father’s Day weekend.
“We ask everyone to recreate responsibly, which under [U.S. Forest Service] Stage 2 fire restrictions means no campfires or charcoal grills,” she said.