Hunker down to stop the virus outbreak

It’s no surprise. As New Mexico began opening up, state leaders said they expected the number of COVID-19 cases to increase. They didn’t expect the explosion we’ve experienced, however, one that has put the state nearly back to square one in the fight against COVID-19.

But here we are. Cases skyrocketed. In the two weeks before Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham amended her public health order, the daily count of new cases increased 79 percent.

As a result, the phased reopening of the state is on hold, with the governor strengthening the statewide mask mandate, once more halting indoor dining in restaurants and telling anyone who leaves the state or who is visiting from out of state to self-quarantine for 14 days. Fall contact sports for high schools are delayed. State parks also are closed to out-of-state visitors.

It’s not where we wanted to be.

The reactions from around the state are mixed. On Monday, some restaurant owners pushed back, protesting on social media and a few opening indoors anyway. Several lawmakers refuse to wear face masks, setting the worst possible examples in avoiding a strategy that will prevent disease and reduce deaths.

Critics wonder whether a mandate will work if fines aren’t enforced. And just how can the state track nonquarantining travelers, whether visitors or in-state folks who have just hopped over the border to shop in Texas or Colorado?

All of this, along with record hot temperatures and insufficient rainfall, are adding up to an uncomfortable summer in New Mexico.

But we can turn these dismal case figures around. The heat will remain, but the virus spread can slow, even stop, if New Mexico residents can stop their natural urge to be with friends and family.

We don’t anticipate good news on that front until at least a week or so — the state must navigate the 14-day incubation period from the Fourth of July, when it was obvious that backyard barbecues and fireworks displays brought masses of people together. Over the months of the pandemic, isolation has begun to wear on all of us. Grandparents can’t hug grandchildren. Adult children can’t visit parents. Friends can’t gather just to hang out. This is hard. Our resolve crumbled.

The situation right now is, as New York Times columnist Paul Krugman wrote last month, a real-life replication of the famous marshmallow test psychological study. Researchers offered children a marshmallow, telling them they could have a second marshmallow by waiting 15 minutes before eating the first one. Many kids prefer immediate gratification to a promised reward.

The U.S. is like those kids right about now. The United States has failed the marshmallow test, Krugman claims. We cannot delay gratification long enough to beat the pandemic even as we know how to defeat the virus, based on what worked elsewhere.

“First,” Krugman writes, “you have to impose strict social distancing long enough to reduce the number of infected people to a small fraction of the population. Then you have to implement a regime of testing, tracing and isolating: quickly identifying any new outbreak, finding everyone exposed and quarantining them until the danger is past.”

For success, “You have to be strict and you have to be patient.”

Too many Americans are neither. New Mexico, sandwiched between COVID-19 hot spots Arizona and Texas, must refocus its efforts before it is too late. That means a return to the weeks of isolation during late March, April and May.

While you’re home, order takeout from your favorite local restaurant. Closing indoor dining is painful, and absent a federal strategy to support businesses impacted by the pandemic, we are going to see more closings. If local governments can help restaurants and breweries expand outdoor seating quickly — that’s still allowed at 50 percent capacity — and neighbors buy takeout and gift certificates, restaurants could avoid disaster.

The biggest long-term boost for restaurants, other businesses and society at large, will be for the people of New Mexico to take the pandemic seriously. Stay home. Wear masks. Wash hands. Maintain social distance.

As the governor said last week, “We are at war.” Right now, we are losing. This week is a new battle and a new opportunity for victory — our chance to win that second marshmallow before time runs out.