Odds say Valencia County key to winning White House
Presidential polls still spread faster than the coronavirus. With a glance at the numbers, hard-bitten political handlers believe they can spot all the battlegrounds in seconds.
They target counties such as Duval in Florida, Allegheny in Pennsylvania, Maricopa in Arizona, and Wake and Mecklenburg in North Carolina.
The poll wizards assume maverick voters in those populous counties can either seal President Donald Trump’s defeat or hand him a second term.
But even the experts and their polls have blind spots. By overlooking the small picture, they can miss the bigger one.
In this election, they are ignoring the importance of Valencia County in New Mexico.
Valencia, population 77,000, might seem too small and obscure to be a pivotal place in the election between Republican Trump and Democrat Joe Biden.
Every pollster will tell you Valencia is an afterthought in statewide campaigns. The real action is in nearby Albuquerque, which is seven times larger than Valencia County.
This is where the small picture comes into focus. What Valencia lacks in population is offset by history.
Every winner of the presidency since 1952 has carried Valencia County. That’s 17 presidential elections in a row without a miss.
As Valencia goes, it seems, so goes America.
If for no other reason than superstition, Trump and Biden ought to be scheduling socially distant chile suppers in Los Lunas and Belen, the largest villages in Valencia County.
Trump’s choice of chile would be green, of course. Biden would opt for Christmas, the inclusive decision.
Reading from a teleprompter, Trump would praise Valencia voters for their intelligence in favoring him in the 2016 election, even as Hillary Clinton won New Mexico.
In a magnanimous gesture, Trump would forgive Valencia residents for their lapses in judgment, such as twice backing Barack Obama without demanding to see his birth certificate.
Biden would be wistful. He’d reminisce about Valencia County voters having the foresight to get behind 43-year-old John F. Kennedy in 1960.
Democrat Kennedy carried Valencia County by 2,100 votes. Kennedy’s margin of victory in New Mexico over Republican Richard Nixon was 2,400 votes.
The deeper Biden and Trump look, the more they will see Valencia holds the key to victory in November.
Consider that New Mexico voted for the winner in every presidential election from its first year of statehood in 1912 through 1972.
New Mexico’s streak of picking presidential winners ended in 1976. The state backed Republican President Gerald Ford, who lost to Democrat Jimmy Carter.
But Valencia County still felt the pulse of the country. It went for Carter.
Valencia voters haven’t missed in a presidential race since 1948. That year they favored Republican Thomas Dewey, who lost to Democratic President Harry Truman.
Polling wasn’t ever-present or sophisticated when Truman defeated Dewey. Guesswork was more common. Many believed Truman was doomed after he took a stand on the touchy issue of race and alienated a segment of his own party.
Truman desegregated U.S. military forces in July 1948 while the presidential campaign was underway. Angry Dixiecrats were sure to break ranks, or at least Dewey hoped enough of them
would to elect him.
Prognosticators across the country saw Truman as the underdog. One disagreed based on nothing more than the candidates’ facial hair, or lack of it.
The late oddsmaker Jimmy “The Greek” Snyder claimed he won $170,000 betting on Truman. His only reason was Dewey had a mustache. Snyder’s sister had told him women didn’t like men with mustaches.
It was Truman by a whisker. Valencia County voters have been on a hot streak since Dewey’s defeat.
After rejecting Nixon and helping to elect Kennedy, Valencia voters showed they could change. They supported Nixon in his winning presidential campaigns of 1968 and 1972.
They favored Carter in ‘76, but turned against him four years later in favor of Ronald Reagan.
Valencia voted for Republican George H.W. Bush in 1988, then dropped him for Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992.
After supporting Clinton for two terms, Valencia voters went back to a Republican, Bush’s son, George W. Bush.
For more than 60 years, Valencia County has been a flawless predictor of who will lead the country.
History tells us Valencia voters didn’t always pick the most honest candidate. Nixon resigning the presidency in disgrace is just one example.
Performance in office is another story for another day. In presidential horse races, Valencia is more a bellwether than a backwater.
Ringside Seat is an opinion column about people, politics and news. Contact Milan Simonich at msimonich@sfnewmexican.com or 505-986-3080.