Change of address: It might be little — or monumental

The juiciest gossip in New Mexico politics isn’t about how fast Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham will high-tail it out of Santa Fe if Joe Biden wins the presidency. That’s so … August.

It’s what happens after she’s gone that has imaginations spinning. Welcome to September.

New Mexico Democrats, gearing up for a gubernatorial primary brawl in 2022, could find a new and unexpected entrant into the ring: U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich. At least, that’s the speculation from those who see a simple and maybe innocent change — Heinrich and his family have moved back to the state after living in the D.C. area — and are stretching it into a conspiracy theory big enough to fit nicely inside the confines of the Roundhouse.

Heinrich’s spokesman last week told Jens Gould of The New Mexican the second-term senator is indeed “now living full time in Albuquerque as a family,” but didn’t respond to a question about whether Heinrich was actually thinking about running for governor in ’22.

OK, if you’re in politics, where all heads, inflated or otherwise, are mounted on swivels, even a simple and perhaps innocent address change can rattle the tectonic plates beneath the Earth’s surface.

Frankly, I’m not convinced Heinrich would make a run for governor, not now, because he’s three months from becoming the senior member of his state’s congressional delegation, and in a world without Lujan Grisham — again, speculation, no sure thing — the most powerful Democrat in New Mexico. Heinrich’s reelection in 2024 — with a Republican Party struggling to muster credible tackling dummies, let alone worthy opponents, in up-ticket federal races — seems all but assured.

If he plays it right and plays it long, Heinrich, who’s just 48, could someday wield the kind of influence that only the Dennis Chavezes and Pete Domenicis and Jeff Bingamans have held in this state. The question is whether Heinrich wants to be one of those people. But right now, the opportunity is there. And that’s why a run for governor would be so odd: Governors eventually trade away their popularity and power; you cash in your chips with every veto, every controversy, every problem at the Motor Vehicle Division.

Senators who stay in Washington long enough — and we’ve had ‘em in New Mexico — become near-deities.

Nevertheless, Heinrich-to-Santa Fe is fun, socially distanced barroom talk, if for no other reason than what it means for a lot of other people.

Let’s say Heinrich runs for governor, wins the primary and breezes past a Republican opponent in November ’22. When he becomes governor on Jan. 1, 2023, he can appoint his own successor to fill out his term in the Senate. It’s the dealer’s choice and, of course, a good way to mollify a potential ’22 primary opponent with a great job.

Such appointments are great theater. I lived in Colorado when Gov. Bill Ritter appointed Michael Bennet, the superintendent of Denver Public Schools, to the Senate to fill the term of departing U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar, who was headed to the Obama Cabinet. Bennet, who’s still in the Senate, was a huge surprise — almost as big as the one Heinrich would pull if he decided to run for governor.

But even then, I don’t think Heinrich is assured of a walk-through in ’22.

You can criticize a lot of things about New Mexico’s Democratic Party, but you can’t say it doesn’t develop young talent. There is an entire platoon of ambitious and hungry D’s who probably think they are or will be ready for the big chair on the fourth floor: Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver; Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller; Attorney General Hector Balderas; Speaker of the House Brian Egolf; state Sen. Joseph Cervantes; U.S. Reps. Deb Haaland and Xochitl Torres Small.

And there’s Lt. Gov. Howie Morales, who actually would become governor and be the incumbent if Lujan Grisham leaves for a federal Cabinet post.

That’s a big bench, a deep bench, and there aren’t enough really good posts to go around. Even in a world without Heinrich, several would-be gubernatorial contenders have to be gearing up for the possibility of a run in ’22. Have to be. And some of them — Balderas, Keller, Egolf, Haaland and Toulouse Oliver come to mind — would be a handful regardless of whether Heinrich is in or out.

OK, it’s politics: a sport that resembles boxing. It’s full of feints and jabs, and talk that might amount to nothing. And in the case of Martin Heinrich, this might just be an address change.

But, hey, wait a minute Mr. Postman. It might be a switch that matters very soon.