U.K. in make-or-break phase of negotiations
LONDON — Britain’s lengthy divorce proceedings with the European Union entered a makeor-break phase Saturday as Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Commission president agreed that the two sides shared enough common ground to aim for a final settlement.
The announcement, after a video call between Johnson and the commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, fell well short of a breakthrough, but neither was it a breakdown. Negotiations for a long-term trade agreement, which have ground on inconclusively for months, will now intensify as the two sides scramble to meet a deadline that would allow a deal to be in place Dec. 31.
The two leaders agreed that “progress had been made in recent weeks but that significant gaps remained,” according to a statement from No. 10 Downing St. “They instructed their chief negotiators to work intensively in order to try to bridge those gaps.”
Britain formally left the EU at the end of January. But under the terms of its withdrawal agreement, it remains part of the bloc’s customs union and single market until the end of the year while the two sides hammer out permanent arrangements on issues like fishing quotas and state aid to industries.
While the issues in dispute are technical and even at times tedious, they have profound implications for Britain’s future relationship with the EU. The risk of a rupture is as big as it was this time last year, when negotiations on the withdrawal agreement hit a similar moment of truth.
Johnson’s intervention in the talks is an important, if long-expected, shift from working-level negotiators to top leaders. In addition to the prime minister and von der Leyen, much will depend on the role played by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France.
Each has very different political calculations. Macron’s polling numbers have swooned in recent weeks as French voters increasingly disapprove of his government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. He faces an election next year, which raises questions about how much ground he will be willing to give Britain on politically sensitive issues like fishing rights.
Merkel, in the twilight of her long tenure, has her eye firmly on securing her legacy as the de facto leader of Europe. A bitter breakup with Britain, especially when Germany holds the presidency of the European Council — the bloc’s executive arm — would mar that record, and she seems determined to avoid that outcome.
“You see that now with Merkel still being very cautious but constructive and the Macron team being far more aggressive and even hostile toward the U.K.,” said Mujtaba Rahman, a former economist at the European Commission who is now an analyst at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
Yet even Merkel has shown impatience with what many in Europe perceive as Britain’s needlessly provocative tactics.
The most contentious points in last year’s withdrawal agreement mainly affected a single country, Ireland, while these negotiations on trade affect many more. The big economies, like France and Germany, have much at stake and red lines they will not cross.
Among the main sticking points are fisheries, with most analysts saying that to get a deal, the EU would have to accept lower quotas for catches in British waters. The new quotas could be phased in, however, giving continental fishing fleets more time to adjust.
At the same, Britain would have to give ground on the thorny issue of state aid.
The EU fears that an unfettered British government could subsidize its companies and dump goods in the continental European market. The bloc wants the British to specify which antitrust rules it will enforce domestically and to agree on a mechanism to resolve disputes with the EU.