NFL MATCHUPS
The NFL playoff picture should come into sharp focus this weekend, with several division titles and wild-card spots likely to be decided.
Here is a look at NFL Week 16, with all picks made against the spread.
Last week’s record: 8-6-2
Overall record: 110-107-7
BROADCAST LOCALLY
Falcons at Chiefs
11 a.m. Fox
There is little at stake in this game. The Falcons (4-10) have been eliminated from playoff contention, and while the Chiefs (131) can clinch the AFC’s lone first-round bye with a win, they would still have a 98 percent chance of the top seed even if they lost both of their remaining games, according to The Upshot.
With stakes that low, there is no reason to rush the return of running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Kansas City should be considering resting other key players as well. That could open the door for Atlanta to cover, but the Chiefs should still win.
Line: Chiefs -10.5. Total: 54. Pick: Falcons +10.5
Broncos at Chargers
2:05 p.m. CBS
Come for the meeting of promising young AFC West quarterbacks. Stay if it is your local broadcast and you don’t have access to out-of-market games. The Broncos (5-9) and the Chargers (5-9) have been eliminated from playoff contention, but these will be teams to watch for next season.
Line: Chargers -3. Total: 48.5. Pick: Chargers -3
Eagles at Cowboys
2:25 p.m. Fox
The ridiculous nature of the NFC East means that neither of these teams has been officially eliminated. But the Eagles (4-9-1) have only a 10 percent chance of capturing the NFL’s worst division, according to The Upshot, and the Cowboys (5-9) have a 6 percent chance. The game is worth watching to see Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts continue to grow into his role as a starting quarterback, and Dallas’ skill players are good enough to make Andy Dalton serviceable on a good day.
Line: Eagles -2.5. Total: 49.5. Pick: Eagles -2.5
Titans at Packers
6:20 p.m. NBC
Only three teams are averaging more than 30 points a game, and two of them face off here. Oddsmakers are expecting it to be the highest-scoring game of the week, and while 56 is a respectable number, you have to wonder how much higher that would be if the forecast in Green Bay didn’t call for temperatures in the 20s and a chance of snow.
The Titans (10-4) have been on a roll, with Derrick Henry running roughshod over all comers and Ryan Tannehill making opponents pay for stacking the box by stretching the field with the passing game. That recipe has led to five straight games in which Tennessee had at least 420 yards of total offense and 30 points.
The Packers (11-3) have been enjoying an MVP-level season from Aaron Rodgers and a career year from wide receiver Davante Adams, leading to Green Bay’s being held to fewer than 30 points just three times. And while Aaron Jones has fewer rushing touchdowns than he did last season, he is on track to surpass last year’s rushing total while averaging 5.4 yards a carry.
Both teams have a great deal of motivation to win, with Tennessee trying to fight off Indianapolis for the AFC South title and Green Bay on the verge of securing the NFC’s first-round bye. But the Packers’ experience in poor weather could be what decides this one.
Line: Packers -3.5. Total: 56. Pick: Packers -3.5
OTHER GAMES
Colts at Steelers
11 a.m.
The Colts (10-4) have seemed better than the Steelers (11-3) for much of this season — and the team’s records are getting closer to reflecting that.
Indianapolis has won five of its last six games, getting contributions from newcomers (rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, quarterback Philip Rivers, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner) and mainstays (linebacker Darius Leonard, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton). A tiebreaker has the Colts trailing Tennessee in the AFC South, but there is no question Indianapolis did a fine job of rebuilding its team in the last offseason.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is falling apart. There was a sense during the team’s 11-0 start that the Steelers (11-3) were being overrated, but no one expected three straight losses. Before this year, only nine teams had opened with an 11-0 record in the 16-game era, and just one of those — the 2009 New Orleans Saints — lost three of its final five games. That Pittsburgh matched that ignominious feat with two games remaining is humiliating, but the Steelers can take solace in the fact that the Saints won the Super Bowl that season.
Being a favorite on the road in Pittsburgh this late in the season is unusual territory for the Colts, but based on what we have seen in recent weeks, it seems justifiable.
Line: Colts -1.5. Total: 44.5. Pick: Colts -1.5 11 a.m.
The Giants (5-9) are clinging to a shred of a chance at winning the NFC East, but they are running into the Ravens (9-5) at the wrong time.
Baltimore is through its tough patch and appears to have its offensive issues worked out — at least against the league’s lesser teams — and that takes this game from potentially interesting to a comical mismatch.
The Ravens need to keep winning if they want to overtake Miami for the AFC’s last playoff spot, and a home game against a team that is coming apart at the seams is an excellent opportunity for them to flex their muscles.
Line: Ravens -11. Total: 45. Pick: Ravens -11
Browns at Jets
11 a.m.
The Jets (1-13) had no motivation to beat the Rams last week beyond avoiding a winless season, but that was enough to power them to the most surprising result of the year.
The victory, however, splashed cold water on their future. Combined with tiebreaker scenarios, the win meant the Jets were no longer in line for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.
Now they will host the Browns (10-4), who are significantly better than them in every facet of the game. Cleveland can clinch its first playoff berth since 2002 by winning and having Baltimore, Miami or Indianapolis lose.
Line: Browns -9.5. Total: 47. Pick: Browns -9.5
Bears at Jaguars
11 a.m.
Despite a recent surge, the Bears (7-7) are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. While a win over the Jaguars (1-13) is certainly attainable — if Jacksonville loses out, it will have the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft — Chicago’s only real shot at the playoffs is to have Arizona fall apart.
It’s still nice to see the Bears right the ship, even if it leads to nothing, as the team’s defense deserved much better than it got from its offense during a six-game losing streak. The Bears should win, but there are too many variables to assume they will cover.
Line: Bears -7.5. Total: 47. Pick: Jaguars +7.5
Bengals at Texans
11 a.m.
The Bengals (3-10-1) are fresh off an upset of Pittsburgh, and thanks to Deshaun Watson, the Texans (4-10) can often do an impression of a competent team. There isn’t a lot of motivation to go around, which makes a hefty point spread a bit curious.
Line: Texans -8. Total: 46. Pick: Bengals +8 2:05 p.m.
The late-night escapades of Dwayne Haskins could lead to the young quarterback’s being suspended, which puts the Footballers (6-8) in the tough position of needing, rather than wanting, Alex Smith to be able to return from a calf injury.
Smith is the team’s best option and gives Washington its best chance of making the playoffs, but his health casts doubt on this game against the Panthers (4-10) that wouldn’t be there if he were 100 percent.
The combination of a Washington win and a loss by the Giants would secure the NFC East title for the Footballers, and having that decided this week would be welcome for a team that is trying to get healthy.
Line: Footballers -2.5. Total: 44.5. Pick: Footballers -2.5
Rams at Seahawks
2:25 p.m.
You have to assume the Rams (9-5) squandered their chance at an NFC West title with last week’s abject failure against the New York Jets. Los Angeles could have come into this game with the same record as the Seahawks (10-4). Instead, Seattle can clinch the division with a win at home. The Rams are still overwhelmingly likely to make the playoffs — a win for them or a loss by Chicago would be enough to get them there — but it is hard to be enthusiastic about a team that allows itself to be beaten by the Jets, who had a talent deficiency at every position.
Line: Seahawks -1.5. Total: 47.5. Pick: Seahawks -1.5
MONDAY’S GAME
Bills at Patriots
6:15 p.m. Monday ESPN and ABC
How you feel about this game probably comes down to how petty you believe the Bills (11-3) are.
After years of abuse at the hands of the Patriots (6-8), Buffalo has clinched its first AFC East title since 1995. The team has a 1 percent shot at overtaking Kansas City for a first-round bye, so there’s little reason for the Bills to go all out.
But coach Bill Belichick will be standing on the opposite sideline, and watching him squirm might be reason enough for Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and the rest of Buffalo’s stars to try to put on a show in Foxborough, Mass.
A season-ending injury to New England’s best defender, Stephon Gilmore, complicates things further and pushes a full touchdown spread into reasonable territory.
Line: Bills -7. Total: 46. Pick:
Bills -7