Revisiting old predictions in a new year
Whenever someone says: “I hate to tell you I told you so,” you know they don’t. In fact, they can’t wait. They’re going to relish it. It’s the secret wish of anyone daring or foolish enough to make and publish predictions.
Being rather foolhardy, I did just that one year ago. On the whole, I’d give myself a D-plus, which is barely passing and my average high school math grade. Ironically, because of the historic unpredictability of the onslaught of COVID-19, many of the predictions are still on the table for 2021. The pandemic pause is still in effect.
In italics below are current comments on last year’s predictions:
◆ The city will find a way to finance key road and spine infrastructure for Tierra Contenta in exchange for holding the Housing Trust’s feet to the fire when it comes to maximum sustainability guidelines for all subdevelopers. Maybe. Through her creativity and openness to ideas, Public Works Director Regina Wheeler is exploring the resurrection of a budget line item in the biannual capital improvements bond — and looking to pull funds from the impact fee collection accounts.
◆ A new, publicly traded developer will be one of those Tierra Contenta subdevelopers because of a willingness to accept sustainability principles, especially water conservation. Still possible. The Housing Trust has talked to them all. The worry is that in its exasperation to get things moving it sells the whole shebang to one of them and local developers and builders get iced out.
◆ A revised Las Soleras master plan is proposed, even as new multifamily projects there get underway under current zoning. Nope. In fact, the one that might have come forward was predicated on the hottest real estate development trend in decades that was peaking at the end of 2019: A mix of high-density housing, walkable retail and lifestyle, plus walkable o∞ces designed on the WeWork model of shared open space and community rooms. That ain’t happening anytime soon.
◆ A small infill subdivision will be first to explore modular construction to maximize affordability, sustainability, and shorten labor-shortage time delays. Yes. Stay tuned and watch this space.
◆ Joseph Montoya and Alexandra Ladd, county and city affordable housing experts, will fashion cooperation agreements to determine
how new affordable housing bond money will be used. Still possible. Because the Santa Fe Housing Action Coalition won a sizable community grant and was able to hire Michael Barrio as a full-time executive director, the coalition has sprung into action. The diversity of coalition stakeholders is broad, but Montoya and Ladd are first among equals and will always be deferred to on policy and technical expertise.
◆ City councilors and county commissioners will agree to put a property tax mill levy on the ballot in November to ask voters if they are willing to pony up to stimulate affordable housing development. Oops, wrong November. I meant the 2021 one-o≠ municipal election necessary to get councilors and mayor elected in November instead of March. The county already is planning a bond, probably for November. The city needs to get this done.
◆ Voters will go to the polls in November, not just to express their fervent opinions on President Donald Trump, but to overwhelmingly vote to tax themselves a bit to benefit of our community. Half right. We’ll see about the other half this November.
Surprising to me now, no prediction was made last year on the midtown campus. I can’t remember why not, but it seems prescient now because nothing much has happened — or at least nothing to which the public has been privy. I think I’ll repeat that nonprediction and say I told you so.
Kim Shanahan has been a Santa Fe green builder since 1986 and a sustainability consultant since 2019. Contact him at shanafe@aol.com.