Special elections can be surprising

Special elections can be tricky — as those of us who live in the 3rd Congressional District remember. A Democratic Party win in 1997 after then-Rep. Bill Richardson resigned to serve as U.N. ambassador seemed a sure thing.

Instead, heavily favored Democratic nominee Eric Serna fell short in a special election. Green Party candidate Carol Miller ran a rousing campaign, there was low Hispanic turnout and voters stunned many observers when they chose Bill Redmond, a Republican roller-skating minister from Los Alamos.

The GOP’s success in the 3rd District did not last long. Miller again ran in 1998, but the Democratic nominee was Tom Udall, and he easily won the seat against incumbent Redmond, despite the three-way split. The difference?

Voters chose Udall in a primary; he defeated Serna.

But in ’97, party bosses chose Serna as the special election candidate.

There’s a lesson here — a reminder that voters and party elites can have different interests. With a special election likely to replace Rep. Deb Haaland in the 1st Congressional District, political parties would be well to remember what happened 24 years ago.

The 1st District is thought to be a safe seat for Democrats — and we don’t disagree, considering how dominant Democrats have been in the Albuquerque area for the past decade. Heather Wilson, who left office in 2008, is the last Republican to represent the district.

However, in a low-turnout election with potential third-party candidates, Democratic kingmakers should be careful with their choices.

In New Mexico, party state central committees choose candidates for a special election, which will be called once Haaland resigns to become the nation’s next secretary of the interior. That could change if legislators reform election law in time to put voters in charge of a selection process for a special election.

Democrats have an abundance of riches to consider, but for now, party loyalists are in charge. On the Democratic side, there are four announced candidates, and more are likely. State Sen. Antoinette Sedillo Lopez, State Reps. Georgene Louis and Melanie Stansbury and attorney Randi McGinn all have said they are running. The all-female field is diverse, too, with two Anglos, a Latina and an Acoma Pueblo woman in the running.

Republicans, of course, will be choosing their own special election candidate. Michelle Garcia Holmes, who lost to Haaland in November, says she’s interested.

Eventually, the nominees will face off. But before that happens, party leaders — unless the law changes — have serious considerations to weigh. They need candidates who have name recognition, the ability to inspire and solid policy stances. And someone liked by the voters, not just the folks making the selection.