Almost through — let’s avoid a fourth surge

Such news: Two days this week, New Mexico recorded no deaths from COVID-19. Other news: New coronavirus cases in the United States are continuing to rise, jumping by as much as 12 percent nationwide.

Placed side by side, the reports seem difficult to reconcile. Yet this is the same pattern we have seen through three previous surges. Open up, reduce public health mandates — and watch the disease take off.

That a potential fourth surge is shaping up is all the more tragic. Unlike in the previous waves of infection, hospitalization and death, this time we have vaccines. The country is engaged in a race to vaccinate enough people so that even as the virus mutates and new strains surface, it will fail to spread widely because people are protected.

Yes, we have vaccines. But they might not be enough given the rush by governors across the country to drop mask mandates, allow indoor gatherings and otherwise abandon what works in controlling the virus.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky could not have been more clear in her warning earlier this week.

Walensky told the nation we must hold on “just a little while longer.”

“I’m going to pause here, I’m going to lose the script, and I’m going to reflect on the recurring feeling I have of impending doom,” Walensky said. “We have so much to look forward to, so much promise and potential of where we are and so much reason for hope, but right now I’m scared.” Clearly, this is a fragile moment.

The seven-day average of new cases topped 63,000 for the first time in nearly a month, according to the Washington Post. Meanwhile, states such as Michigan, Vermont and North Dakota are reporting spikes in new infections. Some 22 percent have seen a seven-day case average jump by at least 10 percent in the last week. A U.K. variant of the virus has been detected on the Navajo Nation — in an elderly person who was fully vaccinated.

This fourth surge, if it materializes, should have fewer hospitalizations and deaths — in part because so many who are vulnerable have been vaccinated. But we could choose to avoid a surge altogether.

In New Mexico, 44.2 percent of New Mexico residents 16 and older have received at least their first shot of the coronavirus vaccine and 27.3 percent are fully vaccinated.

The state continues to be a leader in distributing vaccinations — as of March 29, New Mexico was first in the nation in the percentage of population receiving both one dose and two doses. That’s quite an accomplishment. Someday when this is over, we should throw a parade for public health heroes who accomplished this massive inoculation program and who have sacrificed so much during this pandemic.

But getting to the holdouts — whether because they are hard to reach or are resisting vaccinations altogether — is challenging. New Mexico’s counties have widely varying rates of inoculation success, and more targeted drives are necessary to ensure improvement in counties where only 24 percent of residents have received one shot.

As that drive to put shots in arms continues, let’s take a deep breath. Practice patience — and continue the safe practices that we now know by rote.

Remember that sometimes, by not doing what we want today, we will have all the freedom we want — if not tomorrow, in a few months, without a fourth surge to weigh our country down with additional sorrow. We’re almost through this. Don’t let up.