California Latino voters largely skip recall battle
Longtime reliable backers of Democrats, some see governor as aloof amid pressing pandemic concerns
LOS ANGELES — The political power of Latinos has never been stronger in California.
They are the largest ethnic group in the state and make up roughly 30 percent of registered voters. They have propelled Democratic victories in California for decades, helping the party win supermajorities in both houses of the state Legislature, where Latino senators and Assembly members hold powerful positions and pass some of the most immigrant-friendly legislation in the country.
But as Gov. Gavin Newsom tries to prevail in a recall election in a matter of days, the very Latino voters he is relying on appear to be disengaged and ambivalent about the prospect of his being ousted from office.
In 2018, exit polls showed Newsom with support from roughly two-thirds of all Latinos. Now, polling suggests Latinos are almost evenly split on the recall. And so far, just 18 percent of all registered Latino voters have mailed in their ballots, compared with 32 percent of white voters, according to Political Data Inc., a Sacramento-based research group.
For many Latino voters, the mixed feelings stem from a continued struggle with the pandemic, as they face higher infection and death rates, as well as unemployment. For others, there is a deep disconnect with the Democratic Party and Newsom himself, a multimillionaire Napa Valley winery owner whom they view as aloof and distant.
Interviews with Latino voters, strategists and advocates throughout the state reveal a frustration among Hispanics that Newsom has never tapped into. The pandemic has further entrenched inequality statewide and deepened the anger over the pervasive class divide Newsom’s wealth only highlights.
Karla Ramirez, 43, a Democrat who lives in Downey, a heavily Latino suburb southeast of Los Angeles, said she believed that Newsom had generally handled the pandemic well. But Ramirez, who owns a commercial cleaning business with her husband, said she planned to sit out the race and did not have the wherewithal to pay attention to state politics with the virus still raging.
Her 9-year-old daughter and her husband both tested positive for COVID-19 and have been recovering from mild symptoms.
All registered voters received ballots by mail and have the option of either mailing them in, dropping them off at ballot boxes or voting in person from now until Election Day on Sept. 14. Voting by mail is no longer an option for Ramirez.
“I got my ballot, and I tossed it in the trash. I don’t feel I’d be fair,” Ramirez said. “I’m busy making sure my kids get back to school and get vaccinated.”
With just one week to go before ballot boxes close, public polling suggests that Newsom will remain in office. But many see his struggle with Hispanic voters as a troubling warning sign for Democrats both in the state and nationally, a glimpse of the consequences for failing to deeply engage with a vital political force whose allegiance is up for grabs.
Newsom’s campaign aides deny that they have failed to engage or listen to Latino voters. Aides point to his expansion of Medi-Cal to residents older than 50, including immigrants in the country illegally, and a lengthy moratorium on evictions during the pandemic as two key policies they say have helped thousands of Latinos in California. His campaign has repeatedly boasted of appointing Alex Padilla to the U.S. Senate, making him the first Latino from the state to serve in that body.
Nathan Click, a spokesman for Newsom’s campaign, said the governor’s strategy in reaching out to Latino voters had been essentially unchanged. All along, Click said, the campaign viewed Latinos — and young Latinos in particular — as difficult but essential to reach.
“We’ve known since Day 1 that voters who vote in presidential years but don’t vote in midterm elections and really don’t vote in special elections are the No. 1 target for all of our efforts,” he said.
A generation ago, Proposition 187, a ballot initiative that would have barred immigrants in the country illegally from receiving most public services, gained widespread support among California Republicans, including Gov. Pete Wilson. The anti-immigrant measure largely drove Latino voters away from the Republican Party and into the embrace of Democrats, who have publicly credited the ballot measure as central to their rise to power.
But many Latino voters are too young to remember the battle over Proposition 187 in the early 1990s and do not feel any particular loyalty to Democrats. For all the talk of Latino political potential in California, no governor in recent memory has effectively rallied Latinos to become staunch supporters.
“We haven’t adequately made the case for a long enough period of time that things are different and better, especially for young Latinos,” said Lorena Gonzalez, a Democrat who represents a heavily Latino and working-class area of San Diego in the state Assembly. “It’s as if doing no harm to Latinos has become enough for a lot of Democratic politicians.”
The recall is also coming as many are still reeling from the effect of the pandemic.
Latinos in California were far more likely to contract and die from the virus than were white residents. The unemployment rate among Latinos remains above 10 percent, and many Latino small-business owners have lost significant income in the past year and a half.
“Many of those small businesses that closed forever are owned by Black and brown people,” Larry Elder, the conservative talk radio host who has become the Republican front-runner in a crowded field of recall candidates, told reporters last week.