Republican Elder could be Newsom’s savior
If California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, survives a recall election, he should thank one man in particular for his help: Republican recall candidate Larry Elder.
A month ago, Newsom appeared to be on the political ropes. Polling showed him in danger of losing the Tuesday recall vote, done in less by anger over his own actions in office than Californians’ seeming indifference toward the election itself. That lack of engagement could be dangerous in an election in which Republicans, who dislike the governor, are highly motivated to vote.
Lately, however, things have been looking up. Democratic voters are returning their mail-in ballots at higher-than-expected rates for a year without a presidential election. Surveys suggest the embattled incumbent has pulled ahead. It appears that voters are waking up to the possibility that the conservative-leaning Elder could become their next governor — and reacting accordingly. Elder, a nationally syndicated talk-show host, entered the recall fray shortly before the filing deadline and swiftly rocketed ahead of the other 45 candidates competing to succeed Newsom. Various polls forecast Elder drawing 20 percent to 30 percent of the vote — which could be enough, since the rules require only a plurality to win the governorship should Newsom be recalled.
So what’s the catch? For one thing, the Golden State is still deeply blue. Elder, a conservative talk-radio star, has many “commonsense” beliefs that simply are out of sync in California, where Republicans make up less than a quarter of registered voters. Elder’s positions and views repel many progressive and independent-leaning voters — and others not steeped in the outrage of right-wing talk radio and the Fox News bubble.
Elder’s surge this summer has allowed Newsom to not only run on his own record but also to turn the recall election into a referendum on the talk radio host. Meanwhile, other issues that had been flash points are receding: Schools are reopening, and the COVID-19 threat feels less severe with vaccines available and businesses also reopened. Anger has faded over how Newsom handled the pandemic crisis and his infamous dinner at the French Laundry. All this has given Newsom an opportunity to deploy a the-other-guy-is-much-worse strategy. “This is an attack on our values; the things we hold dear as a state,” the governor said last week.
Here are just a few of Elder’s policy positions that are discordant with the California mainstream: Elder argues that the ideal minimum wage should be zero. (When asked about this, he defended his position in part by claiming that he would do nothing to eliminate the minimum wage should he become governor.) He has said that he hopes Roe v. Wade will be overturned. He is “not sure” if climate change is contributing to the state’s increasingly apocalyptic wildfires. He’s against both vaccine mandates and mask mandates — hardly a winning position in a state where the majority of voters support both. While some Americans support reparations for the descendants of Black enslaved people, Elder, who is Black, thinks it’s the enslavers who have a case, since they lost their legal property.
Conservative talk-radio hosts don’t attract audiences by arguing for reasonableness and compromise, the everyday stuff of politics. They appeal through the outrageousness of their opinions and leaning in when the liberals squeal. Elder’s pre-candidacy statements include a cornucopia of attention-getting offensiveness. For instance, Elder has suggested that women with children are less “dedicated” to their work than male colleagues. He has also written that women know less about politics than men. He denigrated those who participated in the 2017 women’s march as a bunch of obese, unattractive women.
The silver lining in all this for Newsom is that Elder’s antics have done more than attract attention from conservative fans. Elder is high-profile and radical enough to get those who disagree with him to sit up and take notice, breaking through voter apathy. The recall election is not winding down the way that Republicans had hoped and that’s not because, as Fox commentator Tomi Lahren argues, the fix is in. It’s because Californians are coming to realize that while Newsom is not perfect, he represents their interests better as governor than the unqualified and retrograde Elder would.