As in Cuba, gas cars won’t get left in dust
When switch to electric happens, expect to see today’s models around for long haul in the U.S.
All those stories about Cubans keeping ancient American cars on the road are absolutely true. It is out of necessity: Trade embargoes prevent both U.S. cars and parts from making their way to the island, and the foreign cars that are available — both new and used — are well out of reach financially for all but the most a±uent Cubans. Because of this, they are the ultimate vehicular scavengers, fabricators and mechanics.
“I know people who have every single replacement part available in their garage in case their car breaks down,” said Paolo Spadoni, an associate professor at Augusta University in Georgia with an expertise in Cuban affairs.
As the world’s cars become electric, it might be logical to presume that the mechanical wizardry required to repair a classic internal-combustion car will become a deeply discounted skill. After all, President Joe Biden has announced that he would like to see electric vehicles account for 50 percent of all new U.S. car sales by 2030. Fully electric vehicles currently account for about 2 percent of new car sales in the United States.
While the cause will not be trade embargoes but rather this coming generational shift to electric cars, experts say it is possible U.S. roads could resemble Cuba for a spell, with older cars running on gasoline engines kept in circulation long after they ordinarily would have been traded in for another fuel-burning model.
Battery advancements will be crucial to making progress on the number of electric cars on the road, said Michelle Krebs, an executive analyst for Cox Automotive.
“Range is really important to people in faraway places; you have to drive long distances just to get to the grocery store,” Krebs said.
Simply put, a whole lot needs to happen in the next nine years for Biden’s goal to be remotely attainable. Electric cars need to become more affordable. Battery range needs to increase sharply. Charging stations need to become as commonplace as gas stations. And the time it takes to charge an electric car needs to fall more in line with gassing up a tank.
In America, Colorado is one of the most progressive states when it comes to furnishing charging stations in out-of-theway locales. Yet a recent New York Times article about a road trip there in an electric car detailed a weekend spent constantly worrying about the next place to plug in.
“Range anxiety — that’s a real thing that has to be figured out when people go on road trips,” said Jason Courter, chief operating officer at Bellevue Honda in Washington and a former chair of the American International Automobile Dealers Association.
“You really have to plot out your course when you’re driving an electric vehicle,” Courter added. “We’re going to have to have a way bigger charging infrastructure — turning rest stops into charging stations. The average gas station stop takes about 10 minutes. Just to get a trickle charge, you’re 20 minutes to a half-hour-plus, with less opportunities to get them.”
During this electric switchover, the cars will not be sockhop-era classics but might be showing their age soon.
“The average vehicle on American roads is getting older, not younger, so people are hanging on to vehicles a lot longer,” Krebs said. “Gas-powered vehicles are going to be around for a long time, even if we get to 50 percent by 2030.”
Ty Monroe’s scrapyard in Seattle specializes in salvaging and fixing old Volvos — Volvo being a manufacturer that has pledged to go fully electric by 2030. Hence, he has a vested interest in seeing old cars stay on the road as long as they can. Yet he expects electrification is inevitable.
“The days of the internal-combustible engine are numbered,” he said. “It makes sense that Volvo is sticking with their lineage and wants to be environmentally friendly and on the vanguard. If these parts become more obscure, it just ups the value of having a ’60s muscle car and having parts that can get it down the road. As we go more electric, it’ll be a short-term boom, but in 100 years, good luck going to a junkyard and finding a part for a gas-powered car.”