What’s on the Thanksgiving table in a hotter, drier world?

Climate change will alter what we eat, where it comes from

Climate change has officially arrived at our Thanksgiving tables. As the past year has made even more clear, the consequences of a warming world have challenged farmers and food systems throughout the United States.

Drought, blistering heat waves and raging wildfires have gripped much of the West, stressing crops such as wheat — the basis of stuffing, rolls and pie crusts. In the Northeast, the fastest-warming region in the country, cranberries are budding earlier, making them more vulnerable to frost damage. And in the Southeast, intensifying hurricanes, driven by warming oceans, are forcing farmers to move turkeys northward to drier ground.

“Agriculture definitely stands to be impacted by climate change,” said Sonali McDermid, a climate scientist and associate professor of environmental studies at New York University. But, she added, agriculture “is not a passive recipient of climate change impacts. It is actually facilitating and driving climate change.”

Thanksgiving, one of the few nonreligious American holidays that most Americans celebrate, is centered around the notion of gathering for the autumnal harvest, said Amy Bentley, professor of food studies at New York University. But food production is the largest cause of global environmental change, according a report authored by a consortium of scientists. Agriculture is responsible for up to 30 percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions and 70 percent of freshwater use.

It’s a complicated dynamic: To mitigate the effects of global warming, we need to change agricultural practices. But food is already changing because of the warming climate.

“You can bet that under climate change scenarios, corn, cranberries, leafy greens like creamed spinach [and] turkey — all of these commodities — are going to be constrained,” said Jessica Fanzo, professor of global food and agricultural policy and ethics at Johns Hopkins University and one of the authors of the report.

So what does this mean for the future of our Thanksgiving tables?

Most turkey that ends up on Thanksgiving tables comes from eight states, spread across the country: California, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina. Although each region will experience the effects of climate change differently, studies show that rising temperatures can stress birds, causing them to grow at a slower rate or even die.

Farmers feed the millions of birds produced commercially each year with corn and grain crops. But lower yields — which may become more common in a changing climate — can affect the price and availability of feed, McDermid said.

It’s not just a matter of keeping birds cool and fed, however. Intensifying hurricanes are already affecting turkey growers in the Southeast. After Hurricane Katrina, many poultry farmers abandoned the coastlines, heading northward to drier ground, said Tom Tabler, a poultry science professor at Mississippi State University.

Getting a turkey onto the table may become more challenging as climate change stands to affect prices and availability. “I don’t see, in the near term, a future where having it is not possible,” McDermid said. “I do see a future where it’s much more inequitable — and I see that happening very soon.”

But if traditional turkeys do disappear from our Thanksgiving tables, what we will eat instead?

Swapping birds for swine is one possibility.

Feral pigs, also known as wild boar, are an invasive species that have rapidly expanded across at least 35 states because a lack of natural predators and an ability to adapt to a multitude of climates. One Texas chef is taking on the plague of hogs in his state by offering dishes such as wild-boar chorizo, Mexican longanisa sausage and wild-boar confit. As a holiday showstopper, wild boar could take the form of a whole roast or a decadent ragu, as is custom in Tuscany, where the animal has long been considered a highly prized game species.

Turkeys of the future could come from a lab instead of a farm.

Although some are skeptical that it will go mainstream in the near term, several startups developing lab-grown meat and seafood are betting the future of farm-totable will be cell-to-harvest.

As consumers grow increasingly aware of the meat and dairy industry’s heavy carbon footprint — responsible for 14.5 percent of the planet’s greenhouse-gas emissions — cell-based alternatives are attracting a growing number of investors, such as Bill Gates and Richard Branson. Even meat industry heavyweights such as Tyson and Cargill are buying into cell-cultured technology, backing companies such as Upside Foods, Future Meat Technologies and Aleph Farms.

“There’s probably going to be a niche for things like labgrown meat,” Tabler said. But he predicted that a majority of consumers will continue to gravitate toward conventionally grown turkey.

A pivot to plant-based is on the table. For some, no matter where or how it’s grown, meat is a nonstarter. Although alternative proteins such as tofu and seitan have been available for years, plantbased meats, or alt-meats, have seen a recent surge in popularity.

“One of the solutions that’s kind of staring us in the face is to reduce our reliance on animal agriculture,” McDermid said, adding that while meat substitutes may not be ubiquitous yet, “I do see that as being something that is widely accepted in 2050, to have these alternatives on the table substituting for turkey.”