Democrats solidly behind Biden; no consensus about Plan B
NEW ORLEANS — Addressing reporters at a meeting of the Democratic Governors Association, Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina gave an emphatic answer when asked whether he expected President Joe Biden to seek a second term — and whether he believed that was in the best interests of his party.
“I do, and I do,” Cooper said Friday, adding, “I fully expect him to seek reelection, and I will support him, and, in fact, we’re going to win North Carolina for him.”
But just three minutes later, Cooper — the only Democratic governor to twice win a state former President Donald Trump carried on the same ballot — was sketching out what could be the makings of a Cooper for President message to primary voters.
He trumpeted his repeal of his state’s so-called bathroom bill targeting transgender people, an executive order granting paid parental leave to state employees and another order putting North Carolina on a path to carbon neutrality by 2050. “That’s why Democratic governors are so important,” he said, alluding to next year’s midterm elections.
Publicly, Cooper and other Democratic leaders are focused on what will be a difficult 2022 if Biden’s popularity does not pick up. However, it is 2024 that’s increasingly on the minds of a long roster of ambitious Democrats and their advisers.
With Biden facing plunging poll numbers and turning 82 the month he’d be on the ballot, and Vice President Kamala Harris plagued by flagging poll numbers of her own, conversations about possible alternatives are beginning far earlier than is customary for a president still in the first year of his first term.
None of the prospects would dare openly indicate interest, for fear of offending both a president who, White House officials say, has made it clear to them that he plans to run for reelection and a history-making vice president who could be his heir apparent. No president since Lyndon Johnson in 1968 has opted not to run for reelection.
Still, a nexus of anxious currents in the Democratic Party has stoked speculation about a possible contested primary in two years. On top of concerns about Biden’s age and present unpopularity, there is an overarching fear among Democrats of the possibility of a Trump comeback — and a determination the party must run a strong candidate to head it off.
Should Biden change his mind and bow out of 2024, there is no consensus among Democrats about who the best alternative might be. The list of potential candidates starts with Harris and includes the high-profile transportation secretary, Pete Buttigieg — the two candidates most discussed in Washington — as well as a collection of former presidential candidates like Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut said that if such a race unfolded, it would be “a real mud fight in the good old-fashioned sense of Democratic fights.” If there “ever were rules” in presidential nominating contests, he added, “they no longer hold.”
Two Democrats who ran for president in the last election said they fully anticipated Biden would run again, but they notably did not rule out running themselves if he declined to do so.
“He’s running; I expect to support him and help him get reelected,” Warren said. “I’m sticking with that story.”
Klobuchar, who told influential Democrats last year she’d be interested in running again, said of Biden: “He has said he’s going to run again, and I take him at his word, and that’s all I’m going to say.”
A number of well-known party officials, Biden most notable among them, deferred to Hillary Clinton in 2016, leaving a sizable opening in the field that was filled by Sen. Bernie Sanders. The surprising strength of Sanders’ candidacy and Clinton’s subsequent loss to Trump upended assumptions about what was possible in today’s politics.
Similarly, the meteoric rise of Buttigieg in the 2020 primary has emboldened aspiring Democrats, who took the prominence of an under-40 mayor of a small city as yet more evidence that voters have a broad imagination about who can serve as commander in chief.
Most delicate for Democrats are Harris’ struggles and the question of whether she would be the most formidable postBiden nominee. In a party that celebrates its diversity and relies on Black and female voters to win at every level of government, it would be difficult to challenge the first Black and first female vice president.
Yet recent history provides few examples of vice presidents who have claimed the White House without a strenuous nomination fight. The last two vice presidents to win the presidency, George H.W. Bush and Biden, faced tumultuous primary contests on their way to the White House.
There is little reason to expect a smoother path for Harris. Even Harris’ allies are alarmed at the steady stream of stories about her difficulties and a recent staff exodus.
“Everything must change, from optics to policy to personnel,” said Donna Brazile, a former Democratic National Committee chair who is close to Harris’ advisers. “She’s done a lot of good stuff, but no one talks about the achievements.