Millions plan to travel for the holidays as omicron spreads
WASHINGTON — A few weeks after millions of Americans traveled for Thanksgiving, the omicron variant is emerging, just as many more people begin to set out for Christmas and New Year’s, worrying public health officials and complicating travel plans.
The end-of-year rush — typically the busiest holiday travel period of the year — will occur as researchers scramble to fully understand the new coronavirus variant’s transmissibility, severity and defenses against vaccines.
But travel watchers say they expect confidence in vaccines and booster shots, coupled with mounting pandemic fatigue after almost two years, will keep millions traveling over the winter holidays.
Rishabh Chauhan, a University of Illinois at Chicago doctoral candidate studying public risk perception and behavior during the pandemic, said early reports of the variant appearing to be more transmissible but less dangerous probably will leave most holiday travel plans intact.
“We think omicron might put a small dent in travel, but we haven’t heard about any mass cancellations,” Chauhan said. “But we’re living in very uncertain times. News is coming out every day, so it’s shaky to talk about the future.”
With many travel plans still a week away, and medical research findings emerging daily, Chauhan and other experts say it’s difficult to forecast the variant’s effects on pent-up demand for travel.
“Delta gave a body blow to air travel, and now with omicron there’s a great deal of speculation of what it means,” said Sheldon Jacobson, a professor of computer science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign who uses data modeling to analyze the impact of the virus on the aviation system. “Until more data is available, it’s hard to predict.”
The travel industry is coming off a big Thanksgiving bounce, signaling many travelers will tolerate a certain amount of risk. Air travel over the 10-day holiday period more than doubled compared with 2020, according to the Transportation Security Administration. The 21 million people screened at security checkpoints amounted to more than 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels. The more than 2.4 million screened the Sunday after Thanksgiving hit the highest daily tally since the pandemic began, according to TSA figures.
An Axios-Ipsos poll conducted earlier this month, about a week after the omicron news emerged from South Africa, found most Americans said they didn’t plan to make major changes because of the variant. Fewer than 1 in 4 said they were likely to cancel holiday travel plans.
Abhinav Sharma, a Florida State University assistant hospitality professor studying travel decision-making during the pandemic, said he doesn’t expect omicron to cause more than a “mild to moderate blip.”
“We’ve become more experienced as a society in coming to grips with variant-related news,” Sharma said.
AAA is projecting 109 million Americans will travel between Dec. 23 and Jan. 2 — twice as many as over Thanksgiving, which is a more condensed time frame, and almost 28 million more than during the same period last year. That would bring this year’s winter holiday travel within 92 percent of 2019 numbers, the group said. AAA says omicron hasn’t caused its travel agency customers to cancel, probably because many remain confident in vaccines and booster shots.
“We’re not seeing a lot of people change their plans,” said Paula Twidale, AAA’s senior vice president of travel. “I think people are getting accustomed to taking all the precautions they can. They gave up the holidays last year, so they’re going.”
Travelers also have gained more confidence in their ability to reduce their risks, experts say.
Potomac, Md., resident Nora Yang recently rebooked a business trip to France after canceling it because of omicron. Yang, who is fully vaccinated with a booster shot, said she changed her mind after early reports of it causing milder infections.
“We reevaluated the situation,” said Yang, 59, a biotech executive. “Nothing is 100 percent safe, but [the business meeting] is a small group of executives, and we’re all going to get tested before.”
She said she plans to avoid crowds and will feel safer on the plane because of the French requirement that arriving visitors provide proof of a negative coronavirus test. Meeting attendees are fully immunized and will wear masks and social distance, she said.
Travel plans that involve visits with older and medically vulnerable relatives entail a different risk calculation — one public health experts say still warrants extra caution.
Lisa Lee, an epidemiologist and public health expert at Virginia Tech, warned against unvaccinated people spending time with those over 60 or with less robust immune systems. Vaccinated people should get tested 24 to 48 hours before traveling, she said.
“We know what to do to reduce our risk as much as possible,” Lee said. “Let’s continue to do that. Let’s get vaccinated. Wear a mask. Keep your distance. Keep out of big crowds. These are things we all need to do, especially as more people make the decision to take the risk to travel this holiday season.”