A look back and a look ahead
Year-end reviews are easier than coming-year predictions, but Building Santa Fe foolishly set its precedent at the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020. Then COVID-19 hit in March 2020 and all bets were off.
Last year’s annual prediction column was a weak replay of the year before and suggested the previous year’s predictions were still possible for 2021.
Though we learned to live with perpetual pandemic, and though construction continued to surge, the big notions never materialized.
As with the two previous years, no prediction is made for the midtown campus, which is itself a prediction — nothing much will happen, if anything at all.
Here are a few other failures from the ’21 predictions, with commentary:
◆ There are no means to finance spine infrastructure and the connection of Paseo del Sol East and West in Tierra Contenta. Maybe it happens in 2022. With Daniel Werwath essentially in control of Tierra Contenta, and as someone with creativity and drive, it could get done. The city needs to cough up the cash.
◆ No publicly traded megabuilder came into the Tierra Contenta mix. Werwath is predisposed to local builder/ developers, if he can find any willing, and the Pultes and D.R. Hortons of the world are losing patience and moving on to other local opportunities.
◆ John Rizzo’s ambitions for Las Soleras are stalled. Development in Santa Fe is played as a long game and is even longer when something innovative is proposed for a high-profile property.
◆ A small infill subdivision introducing modern modular construction isn’t happening. It’s still a great idea, but the realities of something innovative on a high-profile property where surrounding home values temper price expectations mean business as usual — most likely by a megabuilder moving on to other local opportunities.
◆ There will be no November ballot question to tax ourselves to fund a joint city/county affordable housing trust fund. The city found some cash for a onetime infusion to its fund. It helped, but it’s not enough and it’s not perpetual.
Now, for some predictions:
◆ Multifamily apartment starts will begin to wane as thousands of units come on line and demographic changes demand different housing types.
◆ The Jan. 6 city Planning Commission meeting is a harbinger of the future. Three single-family detached home projects are up for discussion with staff recommendations for approval. One is for 88 units near N.M. 599 and South Meadows Road, from Pulte. Another is for 55 homes in the same vicinity by Anthony Montoya’s family. And one is for remodeling 30 existing structures behind the new La Secoya development downtown. All have 20 percent affordability requirements, unlike multifamily apartments, which can buy their way out with contributions to the affordable housing trust fund.
◆ The Northwest Quadrant and the Santa Fe Estates property will become hot topics as the city seeks to sell its 228 acres north of N.M. 599 and Ridgetop Road. Accusations of insider deals will thrive on social media sites.
◆ Arguments by NIMBYs and YIMBYs will stiffen and threaten civility on the Planning Commission and City Council. Aging millennials who need houses will align with developers responding to housing demand. They’ll meet opposition from aging progressive baby boomers and conservative older Hispanics. Councilors Jamie Cassutt
and Michael Garcia will assume greater voices in the debates.
◆ Housing starts outside the city on N.M. 14 will boom, as the county shows once again why developers hate trying to get something done in the city.
◆ The city Land Use Department will continue to twist in the wind.
◆ The Santa Fe Area Home Builders Association will continue to be relevant, especially under the one-year term of Valerie Montoya, a principal in Platinum Sky Construction, an affordable housing builder. A whip-smart and experienced builder, she is quietly determined to make an impact.