Midterm predictions? Expect the unexpected
Of course Sen. Ben Ray Luján won’t agree the midterm elections in November will be a bloodbath for Democratic candidates, whether at the federal or state level.
He’s a Democrat. He’s not going to sell his side short.
But his recent prediction Democrats can succeed despite President Joe Biden’s lousy approval ratings shouldn’t be chalked up to false optimism.
It’s anyone’s guess what will happen come November, with the midterm promising to be unusual. And that’s putting it mildly.
First, there are traditional expectations. The party that holds the presidency almost always loses seats in Congress during the midterm. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House and an average of four in the Senate.
In 2022, the country is dealing with record inflation, increases in violent crime, high gasoline prices, a lingering coronavirus pandemic, the threat of monkeypox, plus continuing supply chain issues and employee shortages. Oh, and we could be getting into a scuffle with China over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned visit to Taiwan.
It’s rough going out there. A majority of this divided nation is united in one belief: The country is on the wrong track.
This majority, when it goes against the party in power, usually means big losses ahead. Such wipeouts are called “wave” elections and, for much of 2022, political prognosticators have been confident a red wave is coming and that Democrats — especially in the House and Senate — face resounding defeat. So what makes Luján so sure the 2022 midterms aren’t going to be a wipeout for his party? It’s not just his optimistic personality.
Remember, Luján was selected to chair the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2014 — and under his leadership, Democrats regained control of Congress by 2018. He worked hard to recruit solid candidates and invest in winnable races. As a result, he knows the national landscape better than most.
And this year’s landscape can’t be compared to previous years.
Amid the worries about inflation and crime is a more existential concern.
Most Americans want to keep their democratic republic functioning. At their core, they don’t want an autocrat in chief and a party in power that disregards elections. The lies about a Donald Trump victory in 2020 have been exposed, and though hard-core Trumpers refuse to be swayed, the Jan. 6 Select Committee in the House of Representatives has done its job in revealing what happened in the Capitol that terrible day.
Did the riveting testimony persuade a majority of Republicans? Of course not. But the country is so evenly divided that reducing the margins could make a difference. Additional hearings are likely, and the news broke Tuesday that the Department of Justice is investigating the former president on criminal charges.
Then there is the majority reaction to the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade last month. American overwhelmingly favor allowing women to make their own reproductive choices — and that means the Senate, where judicial nominees are approved, becomes essential this midterm.
Should Republicans win a majority, it’s likely they would block any Biden nominees for the Supreme Court. Democrats might begin to vote on one issue — the Supreme Court — just as Republicans have done for years. They might also actually show up to vote in a midterm, recognizing the urgency of the moment.
Democrats also have some luck when it comes to their chances of keeping the Senate. The nomination of weak candidates such as Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania or Herschel Walker in Georgia is a gift to Democrats. Taking Pennsylvania would flip a seat.
The generic congressional ballot, (a poll asking voters which political party they prefer) where Republicans have led all year, is now almost tied when polls are averaged. Despite disapproval of the president’s performance, voters aren’t necessarily going to vote Republican up and down the ballot.
Losses for Democrats remain likely, but a bloodbath? Much less likely than earlier this election cycle. Who knows? Luján’s optimistic prediction could be right on the money.