Turkey’s reeling economy challenges Erdogan
Disastrous temblor, which killed more than 40,000, has saddled country with staggering rebuilding costs
As Turkish authorities grapple with the agony of a mounting death toll from the deadliest earthquake in a century, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is confronting a parallel crisis: the disaster’s blow to an economy that was already in urgent need of repair.
The quake, which has killed more than 40,000 people in Turkey and thousands more in neighboring Syria, will saddle Turkey with a staggering reconstruction bill and weakened economic growth, posing a fresh challenge to Erdogan as he seeks a third four-year term and maintain a grip on his political fortunes before a crucial presidential election in May.
Before the devastation, which also left millions homeless, Turkey was already reeling from a collapsing currency and runaway inflation that had reached an annual rate of 85% in October. Those vulnerabilities have punched holes in the nation’s balance sheet and tipped Turkish families and businesses into a cost-of-living crisis.
Aggravating the problems are unorthodox financial policies pursued by Erdogan, a strongman leader who has tightened his control over the economy and strengthened ties with Russia and the Gulf States to help bolster Turkey’s finances.
Reconstruction is expected to cost $10 billion to $50 billion, although the Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation has put the total closer to $85 billion. More than 8,000 buildings were flattened and supply chain infrastructure, including roads and the Iskenderun seaport, were damaged when the quake rocked southern Turkey. The area, a manufacturing and maritime transport hub that was also home to thousands of war-hit Syrian refugees, accounts for 9% of Turkey’s economic activity.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken stopped Sunday at the Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey, where the United States is distributing relief supplies to quake-stricken areas. From there, Blinken flew in a Blackhawk helicopter around the city of Antakya and saw dozens of damaged and destroyed buildings. Noting relief efforts were moving from rescue and recovery to humanitarian aid, Blinken announced $100 million in new U.S. assistance for people affected by the earthquake. The State Department said the new spending brings total U.S. aid to $185 million.
“The recovery operation is on,” Blinken told reporters at the Incirlik Air Base, from which the United States has long operated. “It’s going to take a massive effort to rebuild. But we’re committed to supporting that effort.”
Analysts say Erdogan, who has been criticized for his handling of relief efforts, is doubling down on an autocratic playbook for managing the economic and political fallout.
“His main focus is on the elections,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Erdogan has never won without delivering growth, and he will be seeking a rebalancing effect once reconstruction starts.”